Will Lakers be NBA title contenders behind Luka Doncic, LeBron James?

The Lakers’ record and high-end talent, led by Luka Dončić, LeBron James and Austin Reaves, suggests they’re NBA title contenders. A deeper dive into their season-long numbers suggests they’re pretenders.

The truth, for now, lies somewhere in the middle, with the Lakers having 28 regular-season games before the postseason to determine which side of the fence they’ll end up on.

With the trade deadline and NBA All-Star Weekend firmly behind them, the Lakers’ attention has turned back toward the “sprint” that is the final two months of the regular season.

Their 33–21 record before the break, putting them at No. 5 in the Western Conference standings and 1 ½ games behind the Nuggets at No. 3, is made more impressive by the fact that Dončić (12), James (18) and Reaves (26) have missed a combined 56 games. 

But they have a net rating (dead even) — which is typically a strong indicator of the quality of a group — of a team that’s expected to have a .500 record, not be 12 games over the mark. 

What are the factors that’ll determine the Lakers’ success to close the season? 

1. Elite offense

With Dončić, James and Reaves at the helm for over the last year, the Lakers have been expected to be an elite offensive team.

But that hasn’t consistently been the case, especially this season. 

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The Lakers’ 116.3 offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) coming out of the All-Star break ranks No. 11. Not bad — but not good enough for a team with as clear defensive shortcomings as the Lakers.

NBA contenders are usually very good to elite on at least one end of the floor, if not both. So far, they’ve been neither despite Dončić, James and Reaves all performing at All-NBA or All-Star levels offensively. 

One of the Lakers’ biggest eyebrow-raising offensive stats: They have an abysmal ​​107.9 offensive rating in the minutes their Big 3 have been on the floor together this season. 

For context, the Nuggets have a 127.5 offensive rating when Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon have shared the floor this season. The Thunder have scored 121.5 points per 100 possessions when Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren have played together. The Spurs with Victor Wembanyama, De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle? A 116.5 offensive rating, 

Injuries have led to Dončić, James and Reaves only playing 152 minutes together so far through 10 combined games. 

But they don’t have a strong track record of offensive success together going back to last season.

Yes, the Lakers were elite offensively in the minutes their Big 3 was on the floor last season, scoring 121.6 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning The Glass. But so much of that playing time came with Dorian Finney-Smith, the 3-and-D connector who’s now on the Rockets, also being on the floor. 

The Lakers’ offensive rating dropped to 115.8 when Dončić, James and Reaves shared the floor without Finney-Smith last season. 

The collective high-level shot-making when Dončić, James and Reaves are on the court together provides optimism for what the Lakers’ offense can be. With their star trio coming out of the break healthy and available, the Lakers have time to work on the other kinks in their offense over the next two months before a potential playoff run.  

2. Zone stability 

The Lakers’ defensive struggles weren’t a surprise considering their roster construction. But they were even worse on that end of the floor than most expected to start the season. 

Their 117.9 defensive rating through Jan. 17 ranked No. 26 and didn’t show many signs of improvement.

But in the Jan. 18 win over the Raptors, they implemented zone defense more than they had up to that point, leading to defensive stability over the last month.

The Lakers’ 112.7 defensive rating since Jan. 18 ranks No. 13 — a respectable figure and in line with where they need to be to have a shot at competing among the league’s best teams. 

They’ve also been the most zone defense-reliant team during that stretch, which has been a catalyst for their defensive success.

Will their zone be a legitimate weapon during the season’s stretch run?

3. Deandre Ayton’s involvement 

Deandre Ayton’s impact on the Lakers’ ceiling — and floor — have been evident. 

The Lakers are 15-2 in the games Ayton has finished with at least 10 field-goal attempts, compared with 13-16 when he takes nine or fewer shots. 

They’re 22-7 when he grabs at least eight rebounds and 6-11 when he records seven or fewer boards. 

Ayton and his on-court involvement is one of the biggest swing factors for the Lakers’ success.