The turquoise tidal wave marches on as Reform UK tops the latest opinion poll, this time by pollster Opinium. The most recent poll has Nigel Farage’s party nine points ahead of Labour. The previous Opinium poll – also for The Observer – had Reform seven points clear. While Reform dropped one point between these two polls, Labour dropped by three, while the Tories remain stuck on 17%.
Reform is increasingly winning over young people via social media, as well as many women motivated by the party’s tough stance on violent crime and open-door immigration. Despite claims of ‘peak Reform’, in part thanks to Sir Keir Starmer’s lacklustre government as well as Kemi Badenoch’s listless Tories Farage can still confidently be eyeing up Number 10.
Of course the next election is still four years away and so much can change between now and then: new leaders for either the Conservatives or Labour could seriously dent Reform’s chances come 2029.
Nonetheless, the main catalysts for Reform’s surging support seem to be independent of this: would a Labour government led by Wes Streeting or an Opposition led by Robert Jenrick really turn the tide against Reform?
Professionalisation and policy development continue apace, and thus far at least infighting involving Rupert Lowe and the parting of company with James McMurdock seem not to have hurt Reform in the polls.
Now the party’s ratings need to hold steady, if not slightly increase, in order for Farage to be confident of forming a majority government.
Ongoing failures by Labour and the Tories will help, as will Reform’s newfound professionalism and slick comms, replete with in-house studio. But a little good fortune won’t hurt either.
Opinium is the latest pollster to record the turquoise tidal wave is going nowhere. The harder task now for Reform UK is to make sure nothing stops the party in its tracks.
