As Reform UK surges in opinion polls, there are indications that Nigel Farage’s favourability has fallen among Brits thanks to his stance towards Ukraine and, in particular, its President Volodymyr Zelensky. Following the Trump-Zelensky Oval Office bust-up, Farage blamed Zelensky for having played the meeting “very badly” and “bowling in and showing no respect” for the US President. As with warnings about Reform’s climate change scepticism, there is perhaps a risk the insurgent party alienates vast chunks of the UK electorate with these statements.
Yet, while the issue of climate change is unlikely to be forgotten by the time of the next election, chances are — at this rate anyway — the thorny issue of Ukraine will be some way in the rear-view mirror, and attitudes towards Zelensky may shift as well. Moreover, climate change is unlikely to be a major electoral priority come 2029 except among the youngest voters who are among the least likely to back Reform anyway.
Meanwhile, many voters chafe at the idea of higher energy bills even if they acknowledge the need for Britain to do its bit for the environment.
By contrast, the ongoing issue of immigration is likely to remain the colossal image and remains the issue about which the UK electorate appears to overwhelmingly side with Reform.
Ditto crime and social order, and to some extent the economy (although Reform has to be careful not to simply echo Thatcherite talking points).
While Reform UK will be wary of being seen as a “nasty party” — to borrow then-future PM Theresa May’s words about the Conservatives — the former’s non-nonsense patriotic policy agenda is still likely to win over huge chunks of the electorate.
True, most Brits feel Zelensky is on the right side of history. Also true that climate change remains a real concern for many in the UK.
But the reality is that come 2029 Ukraine is likely to be off the news agenda (perhaps knocked off by the even greater danger of war over Taiwan), while Donald Trump will no longer be US President by the time of the next UK general election in any event.
Climate change will remain an issue but polling suggests it is not the hot button issue that immigration, crime and the NHS will remain.
Farage’s stance is unlikely to be a long-term misstep, even if the Reform leader must be mindful that his party’s rise could be stymied by statements at odds with mainstream UK opinion.
In the end, Reform UK’s strongest cards are likely to trump — no pun intended — any statements about the Oval Office row. Farage has also already criticised Vice President JD Vance’s perceived slight against the British military, an indication that the Reform chief’s support for Team Trump has its limits.
Reform UK is unlikely to be dented long-term by recent statements on Zelensky, or indeed perceived climate scepticism, and no one will be more mindful than Farage about remaining in lockstep with the attitudes of the British people.
