With mind-boggling speed the 50 year-old Assad dictatorship in Syria has fallen. Damascus has been taken by the rebel jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), Bashar al Assad and his family have fled to Moscow, and his residences and palaces – and many of the banks – have been looted by joyous rioters.
At the same time the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army has started adding to its claimed territory in the north of the country, the US-backed Syrian Defence Forces have grabbed more territory in the north east – and both of had a go at each other – whilst assorted armed groups and militias have started to make gains in their areas of interest.
On top of all of this, the Israelis have entered Syria to establish a buffer zone around the Golan Heights and the Americans have launched air attacks in an attempt to prevent a resurgence of ISIS, and President Biden has even said that America might become involved on the ground if circumstances dictate it.
Meanwhile President-elect Donald Trump has declared that it has nothing to do with the USA and America should let the Syrians sort it out themselves.
So forgive me for saying that, when people ask me what happens next and how it will all end, I reply that I don’t know – but neither does anybody else.
Syria’s internal struggles aside, there will be other states nervously considering their own futures in the light of what has transpired, and possibly none more so than Iran.
As everybody knows, Tehran is the fount of all evil when it comes to the Middle East. It has been the main sponsor of terrorist groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and countless other rag-tag militias in its pathological enmity towards Israel and the USA.
It has financed, trained, and supplied this assortment of ne-er-do-wells for decades, only to see them fall in rapid succession recently. Hamas has been emasculated in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both at the hands of the Israelis. It will be the Houthis’ turn soon.
Iran was also foolhardy enough to attack Israel directly this year, launching an assortment of ballistic and cruise missiles plus armed drones, most of which were intercepted or otherwise rendered ineffective by Israeli air defences with help from its allies, the US and UK included.
Israel retaliated with a series of raids which have essentially dismantled Iran’s ancient air defence systems, leaving it open to further attack from the air. At the same time, the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, on 31 July 2024 in an Islamic Republican Guards Corps’ (IRGC) supposed safe house in Tehran by an apparent Israeli attack suggests that Iranian security is an open book to them.
On top of this, recent history suggests that much of the Iranian population – and it numbers nearly 90 million souls – is fed up with the mediaeval and theocratic regime in Tehran and seeks change. The “hijab protest” of 2022 was just one example of this disquiet. Public demonstrations have hitherto been suppressed and died away, but the potential for more remains.
So it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that the next state deemed ripe to be toppled might be Iran itself. In response to the humiliation of Bashar Al-Assad, its now deposed ally in Syria, the commander of Iran’s IRGC Guards has reportedly claimed Tehran has not been adversely affected by the fall of its ally in Syria.
Iran (and Russia) had propped up Assad’s rule since Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011 and Tehran deployed its Revolutionary Guards to the country.
“We have not been weakened and Iran’s power has not diminished,” Hossein Salami was quoted as telling members of Iran’s parliament in a closed session.
Well, fine words but mere bluster and defiance; au contraire, Iran’s power is much diminished and everybody knows it. Make no mistake, it’s now squeaky bum time in Tehran. Faced with an all-conquering enemy in Israel and a hostile population, Iran’s rulers must be seriously worried that they could well be the next regime to collapse.
And, if the ayatollahs are indeed swept away, few tears will be shed either in Iran or elsewhere.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
