The anti-government forces assault on Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city, seems to have taken almost everyone by surprise. So much for the “transparent battlefield”.
Syrian government forces withdrew from Aleppo in the face of the onslaught and the city is under the control of two opposing parties.
The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control the northern and eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo and two major airports. The factions and “Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham” (formerly associated with Al-Qaeda) supported by Turkey, control the west of the city of western Aleppo and its hinterland.
There are a number of other factions with skin in the game but if you can decipher who supports who and is in alliance with someone else you’re a better man than me, Gunga Din.
Both Iran and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Syria have been weakened by recent conflict with Israel and the rebel assault may be seeking to take advantage of their perceived weakness.
Russia (and Iran) have long been supporters of Bashar Al-Assad’s presidency of Syria, and his government has previously controlled about 70% of the country before the assault of Aleppo. Russia started late in launching raids on Aleppo city to support Assad.
The role of Turkey is more difficult to interpret. Under Erdogan it seems to inhabit the no man’s land between the USA, supporters of the rebels, and Iran and Russia.
It looks like that having captured Aleppo the rebels are heading sount to Damascus. A coup unseating Assad and his government seems perfectly possible.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk