This week’s US presidential election is going down to the wire, with colossal ramifications both for America and the world. Perhaps not since the Civil War has the US been so divided – politically, racially, religiously, and culturally.
Unlike then however there is no obvious political cleavage. Take a state like Georgia – its major cities are minority-majority, liberal, secular, and solidly Democrat, but its smaller towns are rural areas remain very white, Christian and Republican.
If the US were to break up today it would likely be into a million different shards than two or three breakaway republics. As unlikely as this remains for now, given how divided the US has become, whether VP Kamala Harris or former President Donald Trump wins, the country is set to remain divided and dangerously devoid of consensus.
Domestically, on everything from immigration to abortion, this election is one of diametric opposites – in “vibes” as much as actionable policy – with half the country set to be disappointed, and huge chunks enraged, whoever comes out on top.
Internationally, while the two candidates seem (on face value) relatively close on China, on Israel and Ukraine they appear more visibly far apart – especially as regards the latter – with massive implications for Kyiv if Trump makes good on his suspected policy of withdrawing support for Ukraine and forcing some kind of deal with Moscow.
National polls currently show a knife-edge election, with some giving Tramp a narrow lead, and others Harris. The nationwide poll of polls as of now still has Harris fractionally ahead, with the VP counting on a demographically changing America, and the support of ethnic minorities (about 40 per cent of the country and growing), women, urban dwellers and the college-educated.
Still, Trump keeps his lead among whites, men, rural voters and those without college degrees. He also benefits from general antipathy towards the Biden administration for the border crisis and a sense – if nothing else – that the economy did better on the billionaire’s watch.
What could prove especially dangerous for an already-divided country is if one candidate wins the popular vote but loses on the Electoral College, given how votes are distributed relative to population. This makes the so-called “swing states” so important.
In most polls, Trump narrowly leads in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Nevada and Pennsylvania are dead-heats or narrow Trump leads, with Michigan and Wisconsin breaking more decidedly for Harris. That said, the VP has recently led Trump in Georgia and North Carolina, as well as in the rural state of Iowa, evidencing the knife-edge nature of this election.
Can we make any last minute predictions from all this? Well, despite talk of Harris doing poorly among black men and more Latinos backing Trump, the changing demographics of America (less white, less Christian, more college-educated, more urban) are positives for Harris, even if a) she is tainted by the Biden years and b) those demographic changes are still ongoing.
Trump benefits from the fact he isn’t Biden or Harris, and is untainted by the last four years, while Harris benefits from not being Trump, and untainted by his time in office. In other words, this election will be more about votes against something rather than votes positively for something else, hardly a recipe for political stability.
Many voters are worked up over immigration (gain for Trump) but scores of others – especially women – feel just as strongly about abortion (gain for Harris). And so it goes on. The divisions which beset America will remain whoever wins.
That would be tough enough for a country the size of Britain, itself depressingly divided. But for a hyper-diverse empire-sized superpower of 330-odd-million-people, it could prove fatal, and America’s enemies – not least in China – have no doubt figured out how this Achilles’ Heel can be exploited if and when war erupts over the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea.
With no obvious winner heading into election day, both sides can selectively cite stats, vibes and trends. But one thing is clear, the America which emerges from this will almost certainly remain devoid of consensus and unity.
