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White Sox vs. Guardians prediction, odds: ALDS Game 1 best bets, picks

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Last updated: October 3, 2026 1:06 pm
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Published: October 3, 2026
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Contents
  • White Sox vs. Guardians Game 1 prediction, best bet
    • Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting
  • Why Trust New York Post Betting
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In just two years, the White Sox have jumped from a record-setting 121 losses to winning their first playoff series in 21 years. 

The White Sox hit the lottery on several acquisitions in this span. 

Ironically, the White Sox won a playoff series before the Red Sox after trading ace Garret Crochet for a package of players in 2024, including infielder Chase Meidroth, catcher Kyle Teel and outfielder Braden Montgomery — all of which anchored the White Sox in its Wild Card sweep over Houston. 

Miguel Vargas enjoyed a breakout All-Star season in 2026 after being acquired by Chicago in a three-team swap; Japanese power bat Munetaka Murakami came to town to ignite the offense. 

White Sox vs. Guardians Game 1 prediction, best bet

All of the sudden, the AL Central has gone from an afterthought to the October spotlight as the White Sox prepare for Game 1 of the ALDS against the Guardians on Saturday.

Chicago is tagged at +126 odds to win the opener and +120 to take the best-of-five series at DraftKings.

The White Sox will face southpaw Parker Messick, who strung together a sound 2.81 ERA in four starts against the White Sox this season.

He’ll have to neutralize a Chicago lineup that led the majors in isolated power against left-handed pitching. 

Rookie Hagen Smith will get the nod for his second postseason start under two months into his big-league career. Smith delivered three scoreless innings on two hits against the Astros on Tuesday.


Sep 14, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) reacts after making a play during the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez (11) reacts after making a play during the fourth inning against the Chicago White Sox at Progressive Field. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Manager Will Venable plans to use Smith as an opener before turning to the bullpen, which finished eighth overall.

Chicago’s bats offer the higher upside to open this series: The White Sox finished fifth in MLB in homers and had three 30-homer hitters. 

The Sox had the sixth-lowest chase rate and sixth-highest walk rate. While they strike out, they don’t routinely give pitchers free outs by expanding the zone.


Learn all you need to know about MLB Betting


Cleveland was deprived of power hitting with Angel Martinez leading the club with 18. 

The most pressing concern offensively is Jose Ramirez, who slashed just .229/.296/.302 after returning from hamate surgery, with only two barrels in 184 batted balls. 

In the 13 regular season meetings, the White Sox slugged a .409 clip and went 7-6, outscoring Cleveland 57-56.

There simply wasn’t enough separation between these clubs to make the White Sox an easy fade at this price — especially with the morale behind them. 

THE PLAY: White Sox (+129, DraftKings)


Why Trust New York Post Betting

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.

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