As Taiwan prepares for its upcoming presidential election on January 13, the global spotlight is on the potential outcomes and their ramifications, particularly in the context of escalating tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent New Year address emphasised the “historical inevitability” of reunification with Taiwan, setting the stage for a high-stakes electoral battle.
The two main contenders in the election represent opposing views on cross-strait relations.
Vice President William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) advocates for Taipei’s sovereignty and seeks stronger ties with democratic nations, including the United States and Europe.
His rival, Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang (KMT) party, takes a more conciliatory approach towards Beijing.
The winner will succeed President Tsai Ing-wen, whose two terms witnessed increased Chinese aggression, notably with a record number of Chinese warplanes crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line. Beijing views the DPP as a rival and is keen on seeing the party out of power.
The election also features a third party, the Taiwan People’s Party, led by ex-Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je, positioning itself as a middle ground between the two traditional camps. However, there is no clear favourite, as recent polls indicate a narrow lead for Lai, but with potential fluctuations in the final outcome.
The geopolitical implications of the election are significant, with China and the US engaged in a broader rivalry.
If the DPP secures a third term, it could signal a lack of public support for reunification, especially among the younger generation. This could prompt Beijing to escalate tensions, as seen in recent military manoeuvres and provocative actions.
Hou Yu-ih, the KMT candidate, has promised to strengthen Taiwan’s defence capabilities while advocating for dialogue with Beijing. He condemns China’s military provocations and proposes a 3D strategy involving deterrence, dialogue, and de-escalation.
The world will closely watches the election, considering its potential impact on global security. With Taiwan producing over 90 percent of the world’s advanced microchips, any regional conflict could have far-reaching consequences, affecting industries ranging from electronics to electric vehicles.
