The West Coast Conference tournament tipped off earlier than most college basketball conference tournaments and has already reached the semifinals.
Oregon State will take on top-seeded Gonzaga at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas with a chance to move on to the conference championship game Tuesday night and secure an automatic bid to March Madness.
Gonzaga hasn’t played since Feb. 28 because it secured a bye based on its regular-season performance in the WCC conference schedule.
Oregon State won its first tournament game against San Francisco by the skin of its teeth on Sunday and will have a short turnaround against one of the best teams in the nation.
Oddsmakers have Gonzaga listed as 19-point favorites over Oregon State, with the Over/Under listed at 144 points.
Oregon State vs. Gonzaga prediction, best bet
The Zags rolled through the WCC this season, which is to be expected given the conference’s extreme top-heavy nature. Only three teams in the WCC finished with a winning record in conference play: Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara.
Oregon State finished 9-9 and lost its only game against a ranked team, Gonzaga, by 30 points on its home floor. The spread sheds some light on how overmatched the Beavers are against the Bulldogs, but even a cursory glance at the metrics makes that point.
Oregon State’s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency (110.2) matches its Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, which means this team is literally average on the floor.
The two things they do well are get to the free throw line and take 3-pointers, but the latter category is negated by the fact that they have a below average defensive 3-point rate.
Gonzaga’s play has dipped slightly since losing Braden Huff to a knee injury in January, but the drop off hasn’t been steep enough to cause concern against lesser competition.
Graham Ike has picked up the scoring load and, entering Monday’s semifinal, is averaging 23.1 points per game since Huff was sidelined, up from 17.8 points prior to his injury.
Betting on College Basketball?
Gonzaga’s defense has held up without Huff and is holding teams to 94.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks ninth in the country over that span.
Oregon State faces a huge uphill climb against the Zags. While I do think the Beavers are overmatched, I don’t love betting on a team that hasn’t played basketball in more than a week to cover a spread this large.
Rust could be a factor for Gonzaga on the offensive end, but its defense should hold up as it has all season.
That’s why I’m betting on the total.
The Under in Gonzaga games is 21-10 (67.7%) this season, and it is 11-2 since the Huff injury. I’m expecting a low-scoring win that moves Gonzaga into the conference championship game with relative ease.
The Pick: Under 144 (-110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.