Introduced in 2010 by the coalition government, the triple lock aimed to lift millions of pensioners out of poverty. Unlike many pension reforms, it’s been a roaring success.
Each year, it increases the state pension by earnings, inflation, or 2.5%, whichever is highest. In April 2023, it handed pensioners a 10.1% rise as inflation rocketed, followed by 8.5% in 2024 as wages rebounded.
Pensioners love it, and with good reason. Left to politicians, they wouldn’t have got half as much.
Yet success breeds enemies. The Treasury sees the triple lock as unaffordable after these hikes.
The Office for Budget Responsibility calls it a “fiscal risk” that will drive costs higher and higher. The Institute for Fiscal Studies says it complicates planning, as future rises are hard to predict.
Both Labour and the Conservatives pledged to uphold the triple lock for this Parliament, but their commitment felt lukewarm. Especially Labour’s. With UK finances deteriorating, it’s an easy target for cuts.
The threat has grown now that Labour has appointed Torsten Bell as Pensions Minister.
So when one party threatens the triple lock, the others all leap to its defence
Labour pounced on Kemi Badenoch’s means testing threat, saying she “has put pensioners on notice – she’s going to cut your state pension” while adding: “The Tories are happy to leave pensioners worse off.”
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK called out out “the same old Tories” while claiming only Reform UK “can be trusted to stand up for our pensioners.”
Even Deputy Lib Dem leader Daisy May Cooper took aim: “Bungling Badenoch has finally come up with her first new policy – slashing the state pension.”
We’re going to see a lot of this. If Labour moves against the triple lock, the Tories will no doubt race to its defence.
Every party wants to scrap the mechanism, but they all know it’s political suicide. So they’re angling to pin its demise on their rivals.
This grubby politicking could be the triple lock’s salvation. It’s far from ideal but better than the alternative.
So don’t panic yet. The vultures are circling but the triple lock could survive them all.
