Vladimir Putin has “trapped himself” with his nuclear threats, a defence analyst has said after the Russian President claimed his country deployed an experimental hypersonic ballistic missile in Ukraine yesterday.
Rand Europe’s Dr Paul van Hooft believes Putin’s decision to use a weapon other than an ICBM —as Ukraine initially claimed—suggests an element of “bluff” while pointing out that this was not a sustainable long-term strategy.
Putin yesterday announced that Russia’s Oreshnik missile targeted a military facility in Dnipro in eastern Ukraine, framing it as a response to Ukraine’s use of NATO-supplied long-range missiles, such as British-supplied Storm Shadows.
Putin emphasised the missile’s advanced capabilities, precision and speed and stated that this action demonstrated Russia’s ability to counter Western military technology.
However, Dr van Hooft was sceptical about whether it actually makes a great deal of difference strategically, telling Express.co.uk: “Hypersonics were fairly hyped four years ago, but they are not particularly more or less dangerous than a ballistic missile.
“Less fast actually than a ballistic missile in its terminal phase, but somewhat more manoeuvrable, though a Manoeuvrable reentry vehicle (MARV) would have some of those advantages as well.”
Assessing Putin’s objectives, Dr van Hooft added: “It is a signal foremost. However, Putin has been trapping himself since the invasion by constantly raising the nuclear spectre.
“One cannot bluff forever, as the threats lose their value. This seems to me – but I cannot read minds – as an escalation calculated to not irrevocably lead to nuclear use.
“But the war continues, and it is becoming trickier to know how to signal.”
Dr van Hooft suggested that Putin was “running out of ways to sound menacing”.
Nevertheless, Western leaders reacted with alarm, viewing the missile test as a provocation and an escalation of the conflict.
The United States condemned the use of experimental weaponry in a war zone, while NATO expressed concerns about the security implications of hypersonic missile technology.
Western analysts highlighted that this test was a signal to deter further Western military aid to Ukraine.
The deployment of the Oreshnik also renewed fears about the erosion of global arms control norms.
Other experts noted that hypersonic weapons are particularly destabilising because of their speed and manoeuvrability. This makes them difficult to intercept and raises the risk of miscalculations during conflicts.
Russia’s announcement appears intended to project strength amid mounting pressures in Ukraine.
However, it has also deepened tensions with the West, potentially fuelling further militarisation and complicating prospects for diplomatic resolution.
