Vladimir Putin may test NATO’s resolve by invading one of the Baltic states in a bid to shore up support for his war, a former Russian Prime Minister has claimed. But while Mikhail Kasyanov said attitudes within his country towards the conflict have changed in the two years since Putin’s invasion, there was zero chance of any serious opposition.
Mr Kasyanov, who served as Russian PM from 2000 to 2004, claimed: “Putin could easily try to test Article V of the NATO charter.”
The 66-year-old, a frequent critic of Putin and his regime who now lives in exile in Riga, the capital of Latvia, told GB News’s Jacob Rees-Mogg: “It could be one of the small countries of the Baltic states.”
Putin launched his full-scale offensive on February 24, 2022, but hopes of a swift victory were rapidly snuffed out with Ukraine, led by Volodymyr Zelensky, putting up dogged resistance ever since.
Putin, who is almost certain to be re-elected next month still had support and his propaganda machine suggests he retains the backing of 85 of the population, Mr Kasyanov said – although he estimated the true figure was “more like 40”.
He explained: “In the election in 2000 he got 52 percent, but all others were fake elections and he got 45, 49 ,42 percent and I think right now his support is lower.
“But in terms of the war, this aggression against Ukraine, I think the attitude to the war and to Putin has been changed. People have started to reconsider their attitude to Putin because of those casualties and bodies coming back to the cities, and small cities in particular, are creating a different vision for ordinary people.
“They have started asking questions about why we have this war. For Mr Putin it’s important to demonstrate the unity of the nation, as he has these upcoming elections, which are not elections, but an imitation. He wants to be seen as a victorious leader, not as a losing one.”
The nation’s economy was also suffering as a result on the cap on the oil price, Mr Kasyanov stressed.
He added: “Foreign exchange inflow into the country was reduced dramatically, and the budget deficit rose immediately up to five percent of GDP. But in the summer Putin instructed the central bank to devalue the currency and the Ruble was devalued – and the oil price just started to grow.
“Putin’s people managed to find a way to overcome sanctions and he managed to stabilise the budget.”
Mr Kasyanov emphasised: “There should be pressure inside Russia and outside to remove Putin. Inside Russia right now is impossible because Putin puts all leaders in jail. Some of us who are abroad have already been killed.
“Boris Nemtsov, my friend, my collaborator, was killed on the words of the Kremlin. Alexei Navalny was killed in jail, in the camp.
“People live in fear and the fear to identify themselves as protesters, to identify themselves as against Putin’s regime. That means today, there is no chance for opposition to rise inside Russia.
“But outside, of course, this war against Ukraine, that is the fundamental issue for all foreign leaders.
“Ukraine is the important issue because Ukraine is not just fighting for their territorial integrity, but fighting for all European countries.”
