SMU’s loss to Syracuse on Halloween put its season on thin ice.
There is still a chance that the Mustangs (6-2, 4-2 ACC) make a run to the ACC Championship game, but they’ll need to win out and get some help.
Virginia Tech (6-2, 3-2) is in a similar boat.
James Franklin has the Hokies on the right path, but they can’t afford another loss if they want to remain in the mix for a spot in the ACC finale.
SMU is a six-point favorite over Virginia Tech in Friday’s must-win showdown at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
SMU vs. Virginia Tech odds, prediction
Last week’s loss to Syracuse was a perfect representation of where things stand for the Pony Express.
SMU significantly out-gained Syracuse (6.2 yards per play against 4.8), and Kevin Jennings threw for 351 yards, but two fumbles and nine penalties kept the game in the balance, and the Orange made the Mustangs pay.
This isn’t an outlier. In fact, the tone was set right out of the gate for SMU when it barely nudged by Florida State despite out-gaining their foes by 261 total yards.
Four turnovers kept the Seminoles in the contest, and it took a last-gasp field goal to secure the win for SMU. It’s really hard to lose a game when you rack up four more yards per play (8.7 to 4.8) than your opponent, but the Mustangs almost pulled it off.
It’s a shame that SMU can’t play a tidier brand of football, because they boast an impressive statistical profile.
The Mustangs rank 19th in yards per play (6.3), 14th in yards per pass and 25th in yards per play allowed (4.8). Those numbers should belong to a team challenging to win the ACC, not one that is barely hanging on in the race.
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Virginia Tech’s numbers lag slightly behind SMU, but the Hokies, who have a rest advantage after getting a bye last week, are more than capable of hanging in against the mistake-riddled Mustangs.
Don’t be afraid to play the upset in this one.
The Play: Virginia Tech moneyline (+185, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
