Post sports gambling editor/producer and digital sports editor Matt Ehalt is back for his third season in the NFL Bettor’s Guide.
T.J. Hockenson’s polarizing decision to go down short of the goal line last week cost us – and plenty of others – a late cover last week in the Vikings’ win over the Dolphins.
Despite the brutal beat, we’re willing to back the undefeated Vikings again this week against a Saints team that seems quite beatable.
While there are plenty of questions about Minnesota’s offense, its defense is legit.
The Vikings rank top 10 in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed, while also leading the league in points allowed per game.
Minnesota particularly excels at getting after the quarterback with its NFL-best 16 sacks, while New Orleans is tied for the third-most sacks allowed with 12.
That Minnesota can rush the passer so well is notable since the Saints are a second-half team, which provides the chance for the Vikings to get ahead and then allow their pass rushers to pin their ears back and get after Tyler Shough in the final 30 minutes.
New Orleans has scored 26 points in the first half this season, compared to 79 in the second half. They have trailed at the half in each game, which is not a formula to beat Minnesota.
We admit there is concern about Minnesota quarterback Kyler Murray and how many points he can put on the board, but the Saints have allowed at least 31 points in three of their four games this year. Their 32 points allowed per game is the NFL’s highest mark entering Week 5.
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This presents a get-right spot for the Vikings’ offense, and the short turnaround for the Saints also gives us reason to believe Minnesota can win by at least a field goal.
The Play: Vikings -2.5 (-108, DraftKings)
2026 record: 1-3
Last week: Vikings (L)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Matt Ehalt has been picking against the spread since his childhood days when he entered his father’s newspaper pool and even took the top prize on more than one occasion. He specializes in NFL wagers and is quite successful with NCAA brackets.
