It may not register with the masses, but Thursday’s tilt between South Florida and Texas-San Antonio could be one of the most important in the Group of 6 this season.
Both teams are 4-1 overall and have legitimate aspirations of winning the AAC and perhaps gatecrashing the College Football Playoff as the Group of 6’s representative.
It may be a stretch to call this an elimination game, but whoever loses on Thursday will almost certainly be out of the running for the Playoff, and they will be a long shot to make it to the AAC finale.
UTSA is a 7-point favorite for this high-stakes clash at the AlamoDome.
USF vs. UTSA odds, prediction
There were tempered expectations before the season for USF. The Bulls fell just short of the AAC Championship Game last season, but they had an electric offense with Byrum Brown under center and Alex Golesh wearing the headset.
All of that momentum was crushed when Golesh and Brown bid adieu to Tampa in favor of Auburn this offseason.
Rather than rebuild the program with an internal candidate, the Bulls brought in Brian Hartline from Ohio State to run the show. Hartline’s recruiting acumen was legendary in Columbus, and the hope is that some of that could rub off on USF.
A 4-1 start to Hartline’s tenure looks good on paper, but the numbers aren’t all that encouraging. The offense has been mundane, especially in terms of explosiveness. Former SEC quarterback Michael Van Buren has kept the Bulls out of turnover trouble, but he’s only managed three touchdowns and has yet to connect for a 40-yard passing play.
Against other opponents, the Bulls can lean into their ground game and bully teams on the line of scrimmage, but that won’t be an easy thing to accomplish against UTSA.
The Roadrunners also carry some concerning numbers with them into this matchup. UTSA’s offense looked like it should be the goods on paper coming into the season, but the Roadrunners have struggled to really impose their will on defenses.
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There have been some encouraging performances, like a 59-point outburst against Colorado State, but a 16-point effort against Rice quickly brought UTSA back down to earth.
The stakes for this game are quite high, and I imagine that both teams will have no issue with it turning into a rock fight.
Take the Under 49.5.
The Play: Under 49.5 points (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
