It wasn’t as dominant as many expected Monday, but a win is a win, and Team USA will stick around Daikan Park to face off with Team Italy at the World Baseball Classic on Tuesday night.
Team USA is an even bigger favorite against Italy than they were against Mexico, as the Italians are massive underdogs, coming in at +850 odds at BetRivers Sportsbook.
The Americans will send budding Mets star, rookie pitcher Nolan McLean, to the mound Tuesday night against a paltry Italian lineup.
MLB.com lists veteran starter Michael Lorenzen as Italy’s projected starter.
Italy has many unknowns in its lineup, with plenty of non-MLB-quality spots filled in, though slugging first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino provides a strong option in the middle of the lineup.
USA vs. Italy odds
| Spread | USA -5.5 (-125) | Italy +5.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | USA (-1430) | Italy (+850) |
| Total | Over 11.5 (-114) | Under 11.5 (-114) |
USA vs. Italy prediction
Team USA is a wagon, and while they didn’t cover Monday night against Team Mexico, they did come away with a win andwe correctly predicted Aaron Judge to hit a home run.
We’re again backing Team USA on Tuesday and not expecting any upsets during this midweek matchup.
The question is if we feel confident enough that the Americans can cover a 5.5-run spread?
I think the answer is yes.
Nolan McLean will pitch a maximum of four innings Tuesday before being followed by a bevvy of strong bullpen options.
McLean’s strikeout projection comes in at 4.5, which is a bit too rich for my liking despite thinking that he’s among the best pitchers in baseball.
Betting on Baseball?
World Baseball Classic pitchers are limited to 65 pitches, so there’s too much risk in there despite a poor lineup on the other side.
Instead of exploring the prop markets, we’ll keep it simple and stick with the spread. Team USA has a massive edge in this game, and we’ll hope that it shows up in the final box score.
PREDICTION: Team USA -5.5 (-125, BetRivers)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.