Ursula von der Leyen‘s legacy could backfire on her as she seeks another five years at the helm of the European Union’s most powerful institution, according to analysis.
Von der Leyen flaunted her progressive credentials early on in her current term by pushing through a Green Deal aiming to make the European Union climate-neutral by 2050.
It put the bloc at the forefront of the global fight against climate change and amounted to a sea change in EU policy. But as Europe’s political mood has shifted to the right, von der Leyen has been forced to change her tune.
Her green credentials have been sorely dented as she appeared to side with farmers during the past weeks of relentless farming protests throughout the bloc.
She was also among the most outspoken defenders of Israel since the war erupted with the October 7 Hamas attack — even as international outrage over the Israeli offensive grew.
After five years of leading the 27-nation bloc through multiple crises, including the Covid pandemic and the first two years of Russia‘s war in Ukraine, von der Leyen was put forward to continue as Commission president by her German Christian Democratic Union party.
She will only need a further rubber stamp when the party’s European umbrella group meets early next month in Bucharest.
Von der Leyen said, even if she accepted in 2019 to become the Commission’s chief on an intuitive whim when asked by EU leaders, it is now a very conscious choice.
She told a CDU board meeting in Berlin on Monday (February 19): “Today, five years later, I am making a very conscious and well-considered decision. I want to run for a second term.”
In her next term, she wants to appoint a defence commissioner for the first time after Russia‘s aggressive posture and a weaker trans-Atlantic link made it clear that the defence capabilities of EU nations were mostly sorely lacking.
She said a defence commissioner would have to make sure “better investment” is made, and, where it can be achieved, greater inter-operability for EU member states’ armed forces in weapons systems production.
Von der Leyen stands a good chance of extending her reign over the Commission as the Christian Democrat-dominated European People’s Party is expected to remain the biggest in the legislature following the June 6-9 European elections.
Even if the EPP emerges from the elections as the biggest party, it does not give the 65-year-old an automatic right to extend her posting.
The leaders of the 27 member states must approve her, and it is part of a mix of decisions on the EU top post, from the bloc’s foreign policy chief to the European Parliament’s president. Almost half of the EU’s 27 national leaders are members of the EPP.
After protracted haggling over such posts five years ago, von der Leyen herself came out of the blue to claim the position after receiving critical support from French President Emmanuel Macron.
With the continuing war in Ukraine and the possible election of Donald Trump as US president in November, EU leaders will probably not want to experiment too much with the helm of the Commission.
The final hurdle would be approval by the EU Parliament, and with the right’s rise expected to show in the June elections, it could end up being a steep hurdle.
