Ukraine’s air defence threatens to become wholly overpowered after Russia intensified its air offensive with an array of missiles and drones.
On January 8, Russia unleashed a relentless series of air attacks, showcasing the heaviest night of missile strikes since the onset of the conflict. The assault, marked by unprecedented tactics and weaponry, poses a grave threat to the nation.
Ukrainian forces are now grappling with an evolving threat, contending with a limited supply of Western defence systems against Russia’s formidable aerial arsenal.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told CNN: “Russia’s January attacks have employed the full gamut of its aerial arsenal: cruise missiles, ballistic missiles from near the Russian-Ukrainian border, hypersonic missiles and slower drones. [These are] sometimes used to hit the same target.”
International analysts observed that the relentless barrage of Russian missiles, accumulated over months, aims to exploit the vulnerabilities in Ukraine’s limited missile defence infrastructure.
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Ukrainian authorities reported only managing to intercept 18 of the 51 missiles fired on January 8, underscoring the effectiveness of Russia’s strategy.
States squad commander Sgt. Maj. Vitaliy Yasinsky of Ukraine’s Separate Presidential Brigade said: “They used to fly in a single trajectory, but now they zigzag. A drone can fly, then circle, hover, go down completely, then rise about half a kilometer, then fly sharply down. They are now very maneuverable and must be seen and destroyed.”
Amidst the onslaught, Russia has adopted new tactics, such as painting its drones black for camouflage and altering drone configurations to confuse anti-air batteries. Reports suggest the introduction of jet-powered Iranian Shahed drones, which Ukrainian officials acknowledge as a significant threat due to their higher speed and manoeuvrability.
Ukrainian air force command spokesperson Yurii Ihnat warned in a televised statement: “A jet-powered version of the Iranian Shahed drones favoured by Moscow would function like a mini cruise missile. They are likely to have a smaller payload but much faster cruising speeds, perhaps more than 500 kilometres per hour (311 miles per hour), making them harder to shoot down.”
Ukrainian forces are adapting to the evolving threat by doing drills with mobile air defence units equipped with thermal sights and hand-held Stinger anti-air missiles. These small, agile teams, integrated into a network of advanced Western missile defence systems, aim to provide a cost-effective defence against Russia’s varied aerial attacks.
Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of international security programs at the Kyiv-based Razumkov Center think tank said: “We are working at the edge of our capacity. [Ukrainian air defence] often hits more than 70 percent of its targets and sometimes all of them.”
However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the challenges, stating that the country is “sorely lacking” modern air defence systems and needs additional interceptor missile batteries.
The difficulty lies in targeting Russia’s batteries across the border, requiring long-range missiles or artillery systems that Ukraine currently lacks. “Russia is learning its lessons,” said Melnyk, adding: “[sending missiles] to where it knew they could not be intercepted”.
Despite Ukraine’s air defence operating “at the edge” of its capacity, Zelensky raised concerns about civilian casualties becoming a priority in Russian attacks on large cities. Podolyak described a perceived “genocidal component” in Russia’s air assaults compared to the previous winter. Russia denies targeting civilians.
In response to this new barrage of attacks and the increasing threat of air strikes, Zelensky vowed to “bring the war” back to Russia.
