Vladimir Putin needs to “hang on for another 12 months” to win the war in Ukraine, a commentator believes.
Journalist, House of Lords member and former MEP Daniel Hannan believes the counter-offensive launched by Kyiv in June has “failed”, and the initiative has returned into the hands of Russian troops.
During the next few months of winter, neither side is expected to make any major breakthrough given the unfavourable conditions of the battlefield either covered in icy snow or mud.
But Russian troops appear to be determined to make the winter as uncomfortable as possible for Ukrainians, as Kyiv is being targeted once again by missiles and the city of Avdiivka continues to be under attack, despite Ukrainians holding their ground.
In his analysis of the state of the conflict, Mr Hannan drew a parallel with World War I, noting the grinding conflict was eventually won by the Allied Forces as they held greater manpower – much like Russia does in this current war.
Thanks to the large population of Russia and the authoritarian grip he has on the country, Putin can continue to feed the war machine at a massive human cost.
This, the journalist believes, puts the Russian President onto the path of victory, and may only need to resist a few more months before Ukraine can no longer fight.
In an opinion piece for the Telegraph, he wrote: “Putin needs only to hang on for another 12 months. Even if Donald Trump is not elected – the former president makes no secret of his admiration for the Russian tyrant, once going so far as to declare that he trusted Putin before the US security services – Republican congressmen have turned against the war.”
Mr Trump, who is seeking to return to the White House with the US presidential election to be held next November, has already pledged to settle the war between Russia and Ukraine even before his inauguration. Most worryingly for Kyiv, he promised his voters to shut down the “endless flow of American treasure to Ukraine” and ask European allies to reimburse the US for the cost of rebuilding stockpiles.
Since February 2022, the US has provided the largest amount of humanitarian and military aid to Ukraine, followed by Germany. Without Western weapons, munitions and equipment, Ukraine would struggle to face Moscow – which is widely believed to have struck a deal with North Korea to beef up its ammunition supplies – for long.
Indeed, Ukraine may find itself in hot water before the end of next year if members of the US Republican Party continue to block military aid packages to the war-torn nation.
Last week, despite the plea issued by US President Joe Biden, the US Senate blocked a £88 billion funding package which included aid to Taiwan, Israel and Ukraine. Republican senators have demanded Mr Biden stronger anti-immigration measures on the southern American border in exchange for their votes, and don’t believe their request has yet been met.
Hours after the vote in the Senate, Ukraine’s First Lady Olena Zelenska told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that slowing down the aid to her country constituted a “mortal danger” to Ukrainians.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s wife added Ukraine currently has enough missiles to be used by air defence forces to counter the relenless Russian attacks. But, she added, she “[does not] want to even imagine what might happen if [the missiles] run out. We count losses every day, and if the help stops, the losses will be impossible to count.”
Despite his warning Putin may be close to victory in Ukraine, Mr Hannan acknowledged the war is “not yet over” and Kyiv’s troops have demonstrated unimaginable strength over the past 22 months.
He wrote: “Just as there was excessive pessimism immediately after Russia invaded, and excessive euphoria when Kherson was retaken, so we should not infer too much from this setback.”
While Ukrainians took over several villages and continued their push towards Mariupol, this counter-offensive lacked any breakthrough comparable to the conquest of Kharkiv in 2022. However, over the past months, Ukrainians fighting east and south faced heavily fortified areas with mines slowing down their advance.
