Ukraine could ramp up pressure on the Kremlin with a fresh missile strike on the Kerch Bridge – a move which would deal a symbolic and strategic blow to President Vladimir Putin. The 12-mile structure, which connects mainland Russia to occupied Crimea, has long been a prized asset for the Kremlin and a regular target for Ukrainian forces.
Kyiv has already struck the bridge twice, most recently in July 2023, when a drone boat attack caused significant damage to the road section. An earlier blast in October 2022, reportedly triggered by a truck bomb, ignited a massive fireball and partially collapsed the span, briefly severing a key supply route to Russian forces in Crimea. Germany’s new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, this week pledged to help Ukraine produce new long-range weapons systems capable of striking deep into enemy territory.
James Black, assistant director of the Defence and Security research group at RAND Europe, said even the threat of targeting the bridge again would be a significant tactical gain.
He said: “The bridge still holds huge symbolic and political significance to both sides, as the physical embodiment of Russia’s ongoing attempts to illegally integrate Crimea into its own country and as a de facto litmus test for how Putin’s ‘special military operation’ is going.”
While Mr Black acknowledged that the strategic value of destroying the bridge has declined since the early days of the war, given that Russia has invested in improving alternative infrastructure and logistical routes over the land bridge which runs along the coast from the occupied east of Ukraine towards Crimea.
Nevertheles, increasing the threat to the bridge would force Moscow to stretch its already strained defensive lines, Mr Black stressed.
He explained: “Equally, the burden of defending the bridge from air, missile or drone attack ties up Russian air defence systems and other forces that could otherwise be deployed elsewhere on the frontline or to secure vulnerable logistical hubs and military or industrial sites in Russia itself.
“So, increasing the threat to the bridge from standoff ranges and forcing Russia to double down on defences there is itself a win for Ukraine, even if they prove unable or unwilling to invest in actually destroying it.”
With Russia believed to be amassing over 50,000 troops near the Sumy front in northeastern Ukraine, Kyiv is increasingly turning to long-range strikes as a means of disrupting Moscow’s plans and regaining the initiative.
Mr Merz’s announcement marks a clear shift in tone from his predecessor Olaf Scholz, whose government repeatedly stalled over whether to send long-range Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv.
Although Mr Merz stopped short of confirming Germany would transfer Taurus systems, he said the West had already lifted range restrictions and promised to help Ukraine “produce” its own longer-range weapons on its own soil – with the first such systems due to enter service “within weeks,” according to the German defence ministry.
Officials in Berlin and Kyiv have not disclosed technical details of the new weapons, but German newspaper Spiegel reported that they would be simpler to operate than Taurus, which has a 500km range and has already been deployed by the UK and France in the form of Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles.
The Kremlin has branded the move “dangerous” and warned it would hamper any hopes of a political solution to the conflict.
However, Mr Merz, during a press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, warned that Russia’s refusal to engage seriously in peace talks would have “real consequences”.