As the UK enters the latter part of July and eyes a potentially warmer August, questions are once again swirling about whether Britain could see a repeat of the blistering 40C temperatures last recorded in the summer of 2022. According to meteorologists, the odds are low, but not off the table entirely.
Jim Dale, senior meteorologist at British Weather Services, told the Daily Express that although summer still has plenty of life left in it, the conditions required to hit 40C are rare and complex. “Summer’s not over,” Dale said.
He added: “We’ve obviously got the little bit of July to go, and all of August – and increasingly, even September is acting like a summer month.”
But while another warm spell may emerge, reaching 40C would require a perfect blend of atmospheric ingredients. This requires a powerful heat plume from North Africa, persistent dry and sunny skies, and airflow straight from the continent.
He explained that we’re still a long way from seeing those ingredients align and the synoptics have to be right.
So far this summer, the UK has experienced three warm spells, and Dale expects a fourth could emerge in early to mid-August. While this could bring temperatures into the low to possibly mid-30s, he said we’re still about eight degrees off the kind of heat that would trigger new records.
In betting terms, he put the chances of hitting 40C this year at around six to one against.
He said: “In other words, six chances of no, one chance of yes,” he said. “I wouldn’t put my house or money on it, but I wouldn’t rule it out completely, not yet.”
Dale also stressed how much climate change has shifted the boundaries of what’s considered possible in British weather. Before 2022, 40°C in the UK was considered almost unimaginable.
Now, with rising global temperatures, forecasters have to be far more cautious in dismissing extremes.
“We’re in a new playground as far as weather is concerned,” he said.
“What was before traditional meteorology, we would never, ever have said we were going to get 40 degrees. That would have been silly. Nowadays, you’ve got to look over your shoulder.”
Although current forecast models show some signs of increased warmth in early August, no clear evidence points to an incoming heatwave of historic scale.
If a strong plume does build over southern Europe, it’s likely Spain and southern France will feel the brunt, by the time that air reaches the UK, it often loses intensity.
So while the extreme heat seen in 2022 is unlikely to be repeated this year, the trend toward hotter, more volatile summers remains in motion.
