The UK could be left defenceless from nuclear attack if the reliability of the United States comes into question, an expert has warned. Former UK Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind, who initiated talks between the UK and France on nuclear cooperation during his time in office, made the claims following a deterioration in US and European relations since Donald Trump assumed office for the second time.
Britain’s ageing Trident fleet, which costs around £3bn a year, has been beset by issues in recent years, with the UK conducting a second embarrassing test failure last year. The UK relies heavily on the US to maintain its nuclear deterrent, with weapons designed, manufactured and maintained across the Atlantic. Sir Malcolm said: “It really is necessary for Britain and France to work more closely together because if American reliability ever came into question, then Europe could be defenceless in the face of Russian aggression.”
Following the US decision to withhold military aid and intelligence from ally Ukraine, many have called the reliability of the country into question while Trump is president.
Sir Malcolm added: “The contribution by America must now be to some degree in doubt, not today or tomorrow, but over the next few years and certainly as long as Trump and people like him are in control in Washington.”
The UK maintains that the UK remains a vital ally, with the Prime Minister reemphasising the point in the House of Commons this week.
In a speech this week, French President Emmanuel Macron admitted that a future where his country could not rely on the United States as an ally existed, a comment that would have been unthinkable just months ago.
Experts have pointed to the fact that a deterioration in relations between London and Washington would have a disastrous impact on Britain’s ability to use nuclear weapons and thus maintain its deterrence, given its heavy reliance on the country.
Hans Kristensen, who monitors the status of nuclear forces for the Federation of American Scientists, a US thinktank, said: “Britain likes to call its nuclear posture independent, but it, of course, is absolutely not.
“It may be that Britain can fire weapons independently of the US, but below that, the entire infrastructure covering missile compartments on submarines, the missiles themselves, all are supplied by the Americans.”
The uncertainty has led to many calling for the UK to rehearse contingency plans to prepare for an eventuality where the special relationship loses its shine.
Dr Marion Messmer, a senior research fellow at Chatham House and an expert on nuclear weapons policy, said: “It would be a big risk if it wasn’t being planned for, but it’s something the UK government can’t be too public about, as it wouldn’t want to give the Trump administration or Russia any ideas.”
She added: “You wouldn’t necessarily be able to take the warheads which the UK uses for submarine launches and fit them for air launch. You would very likely need to develop a whole second warhead. That would require everything from new assembly facilities and workforce planning, but it could be a worthwhile investment for Britain.”