The UFC returns to APEX this weekend for just the second time in eight cards.
With it having been a while since we’ve been in the warehouse that’s located in the middle of the desert, and we’ll have another 12 fights to enjoy and bet on.
Of the 12 fights, a whopping eight of them are projected to end inside distance.
Last week’s card saw 11 of 14 fights end via knockout or submission, so you’re seeing plenty of violence early in his fights these days.
Below we break down the best bets for UFC Vegas 122 as we bet on the entire card.
UFC Vegas 122 predictions
Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan
A very interesting middleweight bout between these two top 10 fighters in the division. Christian Leroy Duncan has won five straight, having defeated a lower level of competition compared to his opponent Brendan Allen.
Allen has fought the peak level at the division and has proved a lot of people wrong in his career. You’ll remember Allen was a massive underdog to Reiner De Ridder before thoroughly dominating him and winning late in that fight.
Leroy Duncan is a sick athlete and loves to show off his explosive movements where he should be able to land power shots.
Though, he does waste some energy doing that, which concerns me in a five-round fight against Allen who has been there before.
Having said all of that, I think Leroy Duncan’s decision line of +500 is too high, considering I think this fight will be extremely competitive on the feet.
If Leroy Duncan doesn’t throw too many spinning kicks, which I consider just tactically foolish against higher-level opponents. I think he’s the side to target.
As a sort of hedge for his potential stupidity in that sense, I’ll target the fight to go the distance, and a smaller bet on Leroy Duncan to win by decision.
PREDICTION: Fight goes the distance (+138, FanDuel) | Leroy Duncan wins by decision (+500, BetMGM)
Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert
In the lightweight division, Matheus Camilo faces off with Jai Herbert.
Herbert, 38, has done a good job in his career as a volume striker with some power, but also has poor durability on the offensive side.
Herbert infamously knocked down Ilia Topuria in a fight that wound up being against the former champion in the division.
Topuria would go on to brutally knock Herbert out in that 2022 fight, where we had no idea how high-level Topuria would become.
If you want to back Herbert, you’re hoping he doesn’t get clipped by Damilo, who is fighting at Xtreme Couture, one of the highest-level MMA gyms out there.
Coach Eric Nicksick is very high on Camilo; I’ll take the 25-year-old prospect in this spot and do it brutally.
Target Camilo to win by knockout here, as he has some serious power in his hands.
PREDICTION: Camilo by KO/TKO (+150, DraftKings)
Get the lowdown on the Best USA Sports Betting Sites and Apps
UFC Vegas 122 full card picks
Loopy Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza: Fight goes the distance (-275, BetMGM) for parlays
Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III: Kamaka III ML (+135, Novig)
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi: Wellmaker by decision (+300, FanDuel)
Julius Walker vs. Gerald Meerschaert: Small bet on Meerschaert (19/1, FanDuel
Francisco Prado vs. Ismael Bonfim: Prado wins and the fight starts round two (+110, DraftKings)
Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan: Either fighter to win by KO/TKO in round 1 (+300, FanDuel)
Felipe Franco vs. Brendson Ribeiro: Under 1.5 rounds (-158, Polymarket)
Allen Frye Jr. vs. RJ Harris: Over 1.5 rounds (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook) | Fight goes the distance (+320, FanDuel)
Alice Pereira vs. Daria Zhelezniakova: Zhelezniakova by decision (+239, Kalshi)
Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto: Kareckaite by decision (+158, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
