The UFC moves from China to Europe on Saturday, heading to Paris, France.
The Gauls will be out in full force this weekend with nine French fighters in the 14 bouts for our viewing pleasure.
Just seven of the 14 fights are projected to end inside the distance, which is a rarity these days as most fights have been expected to end with a finish in most cases.
We’ll see if the French have that finishing upside this weekend as the card begins early on Saturday, with the curtain-jerker kicking off at 12 p.m. ET.
The main card begins at 3 p.m. ET, on Paramount+
UFC Fight Night Paris predictions
Dan Hooker vs. Salahdine Parnasse
Hooker (24-14) being in a main event at this point in his UFC career is a disgrace to the promotion. He should have been cut a long time ago.
Hooker has been outstruck 139 to 40 in his last two fights, both losses in the second round.
He’s a +550 underdog against a guy coming in for his UFC debut. I really question Hooker’s mentality entering into this fight. Is he coming in just to get a paycheck?
Parnasse, 23-2, is faster, stronger and better than Hooker at this stage in his career.
At home, you have to back the favorite here. He has seven submission wins to his credit and I’ll take him to do so by submission as most betting markets have this prop in the +275 range.
Recommendation: Parnasse by submission (+454, Kalshi)
Fares Ziam vs. Axel Sola
It’s a battle of Frenchmen as night as a pair of lightweights face off. Ziam is coming off a loss to Tom Nolan where he was a pretty sizeable -350 favorite.
It was an ugly performance for Ziam, who was on his back foot for nearly the whole fight.
Sola fought in Paris last year and won by TKO over Rhys McKee, but his D’Arce choke of Ismael Bonfim is a particularly interesting one to look at. Sola appears to be improving his grappling as his submission last time out was the first as a pro.
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Both of these fighters struggle when they’re not the aggressor. That was Ziam’s problem against Nolan, and the same can be said of Sola when he lost a war against Mason Jones that earned fight of the night honors.
To be fair, I think Jones is one of the better fighters that either of these guys has faced. I’ll pick the underdog Sola with odds as high as +135, as he’s a much more active fighter, landing 4.5 strikes per minute, better than Ziam’s 2.68.
This fight will come down to aggression and will feature more than most.
Recommendation: Sola moneyline (+135, theScore Bet)
UFC Fight Night Paris full card picks
Michael Page vs. Nursulton Ruziboev: Ruziboev by decision (+500, BetMGM)
Daniil Donchenko vs. Punahele Soriano: Donchenko by decision (+370, FanDuel)
Kurtis Campbell vs. Trevor Peek: Campbell by KO/TKO (+240, FanDuel)
Losene Keita vs. Muhammad Naimov: Keita moneyline for parlays
Morgan Charriere vs. Felipe Lima: Fight goes the disance (-145, BetMGM)
Mario Pinto vs. Ryan Spann: Pinto moneyline for parlays
Oumar Sy vs. Modestas Bukauskas: Sy by KO/TKO (+550, FanDuel)
Nathaniel Wood vs. Pavel Andrusca: Wood moneyline for parlays
Michael Aljarouj vs. Fabia Sintes: Pass
Nora Cornolle vs. Klaudia Sygula: Cornolle by decision (+270, FanDuel)
Matthieu Duclos vs. Luis Felipe Dias: Duclos wins and the fight starts Round 2 (+190, DraftKings)
Delphine Benouaich vs. Sofia Montenegro: Fight goes the distance (-183, Kalshi)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
