Donald Trump is right to be concerned about security in the Arctic, but invading Greenland can only result in a “pyrrhic victory”, experts said last night. It follows an escalation in White House language against Denmark, as the White House attempts to charm Greenlanders into accepting proposals to be annexed to the US.
President Trump’s concerns centre on the fact that important US military deals with Greenland were struck decades ago, when it was still a Danish possession. With Russia threatening to militarise the Arctic, and China making the most of the melting ice caps to boost its global trade, these deals are more important than ever. But with independence for Greenlanders a seeming inevitability in the not-too-distant future, he is faced with a prospect of dealing with a Government which might one day not look so favourably on the US as he believes Greenlanders do now.
The fact that the semi-autonomous territory is endowed with the eighth largest reserves of rare earth elements, critical to advancing new technologies, and also has large amounts of lithium and cobalt, has not escaped his attention either.
Trump doubled down on his suggestion that the US should take over Greenland on Monday, saying: “I think Greenland is going to be something that maybe is in our future.”
Vice-President JD Vance has launched a two-pronged offensive.
His scathing remarks about Denmark “not being a good ally” were originally made in February, and are aimed at deepening division between Greenlanders and Denmark.
Those remarks were deliberately recirculated days ahead of a planned visit by his wife, Usha, who will land tomorrow as part of a charm offensive.
The Second Lady will take her two children to Sisimiut to watch a dogsled race – which the US Consulate sponsors – Pituffik, where the US air based is located, and Greenland’s capital Nuuk.
In an Instagram video she said the trip would “celebrate the long history of mutual respect and cooperation between our nations, and to express hope that our relationship will ony grow stronger.”
But if the arrival of two US Hercules military transport planes carrying security personnel and bulletproof vehicles isn’t a sign that Mrs Vance will be no ordinary tourist, an entourage including White House National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and now even her husband surely is.
Announcing his intention to join her last night, the Vice President Vance said: “There is so much excitement about Usha’s visit to Greenland that I decided that I did not want her to have all that fun by herself.”
One particular cause of among Greenlanders is the fact that the uninvited visit has been timed to coincide with a period when Greenland is still trying to form a Government following recent elections on March 11.
Those elections were won by the Democrats, a pro-business party that favours a slow approach to independence from Denmark in what was viewed as a rejection of Donald Trump’s interference in the island’s politics.
“We don’t want to be Americans. We don’t want to be Danes. We want to be Greenlanders. And we want to build our own country by ourselves,” said Jens-Frederik Nielsen, leader of the Democrats.
”We must not be forced into a power game that we ourselves have not chosen to be a part of.”
But, with only 30% of the vote, it did not gain an overall majority and is desperately trying to cobble together a coalition.
Outgoing PM Mute Egede dubbed plans by the US delegation a “provocation”, and said his caretaker government would not meet with the group.
“Such interference is a breach of our democratic principles and shows a lack of respect for our self-determination,” he said.
President Trump admitted that he was working with “people in Greenland” who want something to happen, adding: “They’re calling us, we’re not calling them.”
As criticism of the visit mounts among the territory’s 57,000 inhabitants, it is difficult to know where these people are.
A new poll by media groups Sermitsiaq and Berlingskehas found that only 6% of Greenlanders favour becoming part of the US. While 84% want an eventual separation from Denmark, this may have to take time. Only 8% say that Greenland could become an independent state within a year, while 52% think it could happen within 10 or 20 years.
That is a far cry from the swift transition to American control US President Donald Trump is hoping for.
In the meantime, the security concerns are real, said Dr Dwayne Ryan Menezes, founder the of Polar Research and Policy Initiative (PRPI) think-tank.
“President Trump rightly fears Russian militarisation and growing Chinese economic influence of the Arctic,” he said.
Referring to Russian ships in particular, Dr Menezes said those carrying LNG are getting rid of foreign crews so that those Russians aboard can have direct contact with FSB officials.
“One of the reasons for this is that when these ships come to Western Europe, they have spaces within them which are at the discretionary use of the Russian officers,” he said.
“They’re able to buy and transport back unregulated cargo that they would not be able to declare because of sanctions.
“There’s a lot of covert activity happening through the growing FSB control of ports along the Arctic route. And this is greatly concerning.”
He added: “But President Trump’s threats to annex Greenland would at best be a pyrrhic victory for him.
“The US is going to have to maintain it and it’s an expensive acquisition in return for advantages he enjoys now at relatively little cost. And it would pitch the US against its Nato allies.”
In attempting to strong-arm and cajole Greenland, President Trump is doing exactly what JD Vance has accused Denmark of doing, he added. “America’s is exploiting legitimate grievances the Greenlanders have with Denmark by using the language of decolonisation to share its colonialist ambition.
“In essence, the US is speaking about replacing one colonial overlord which gives Greenlanders free health care and free education with one that has a worse record of treatment of Indigenous people. And the administrations leaked admissions revealing their contempt for Europe won’t have helped their cause.”
He added: ” If Trump is as pragmatic as he claims to be, he would do well to recognise that the current approach is backfiring and jettison all talk of it while strengthening the bilateral US-Greenland relationship instead – prioritising alliance over conquest.”
