A group of Tory plotters, including seven or more former special advisers (spads) to government ministers, are looking at using the May local elections as a “last ditch” platform to oust Rishi Sunak as party leader and Prme Minister.
The theory runs that Conservative MPs are currently “too timid and too scared” to move against Rishi sunak in sufficient numbers”.
As one MP involved in talks to get rid of the Prime Minister noted to Express.co.uk: “The hope is that colleagues (other MPs) will see how bad the local election results are and it will motivate them to get their letters in [to 1922 Committee chairman Sir Graham Brady] to have a vote of confidence.”
Currently 53 letters are required to trigger a vote and while no sitting Prime Minister has lost one they have all been forced out in the weeks that followed.
The ex-spads involved are known to a lot of insiders in Parliament with strong links to ex-ministers and sunak critics like former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and ex-Business Secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg.
In some cases they have been seen to be working with a rightwing group, the New Conservatives set up by MPs Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates, who became part of the so-called “five families” attempting to change Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda Bill to make it tougher.
While there were claims that another former cabinet minister Sir Simon Clarke was acting alone in calling for Sunak to go last week, his imminant article was being briefed out by the same former spads at least one of whom was invoved in meetings with Mr Kruger and Ms Cates throughout the evening i n the middle of Portcullis House.
But the idea that the coup should be launched in May has caused an argument behind the scenes.
Some are advising that if it does not happen in the next few weeks then “it will be too late”.
One Tory MP considering joining the coup told Express.co.uk: “If the by-elections are really bad on February 15 then that should be the point. If we wait til May it will be far too late.”
The MP went on: “Essentially, we would have to get the letters in for a vote of confidence. That would take time. Then the PM would probably win and it would take weeks longer to force him out.
“Before you know where you are we have a leadership contest over the summer where we tear each other apart and then go almost straight into an election in the Autumn asking people to vote for us. It would be disastrous.”
But there are concerns that MPs “need time to find their backbone”.
Another unhappy Tory MP said: “I would do it tomorrow. I want a new leader. Nobody likes Sunak. Colleagues though are scared of what the public would think of us changing leader yet again and that it would be even worse. Personally I don’t think it can get much worse.”
Today Nadine Dorries claimed that the Rwanda Bill rebellion launched in December was an attempt to install Kemi Badenoch as leader. Ms Badenoch’s response was to accuse Ms Dorries of indulging in “conspiracy theories”.
But as another week in politics begins, Tory MPs are looking at what happens in Kingswood and Wellingborough in the by-elections.
The expectation is that the party will lose big in two safe seats with Labour “easily” taking both.
But the biggest worry of all is Wellingborough which has become a test for how far Reform UK’s vote has grown.
Currently Richard Tice’s party is getting between 9 and 13 percent in the polls. Enough, as Ms Badenoch noted today, to wipe the Tories out by splitting the centre right vote.
Reform UK Wellingborough candidate Ben Habib, a former Tory donor and Brexit Party MEP, has declared the by-election as “a referendum on Sunak’s government” and told Express.co.uk that he has had a hugely positive response from voters in the Northamptonshire seat.
The crunch then could be if the conservatives come third in Wellingborough with Reform UK ahead.
One MP said: “I think that might be enough to trigger panic among colleagues and then we will see.”
