The Tories are facing a huge threat from a party other than Reform UK ahead of the local elections on May 1. Conservative insiders have revealed that, while Nigel Farage still poses a threat, a large Liberal Democrats base in the Home Counties could prevent the Tories from winning key council seats.
“The threat in the south isn’t mainly from Farage or Reform,” a senior Tory source told GB News. “It’s from the Lib Dems. They’ve got a base and it’s currently bigger than Reform’s.” Sir Ed Davey’s party may now see the May elections as an opportunity to add further pressure to Kemi Badenoch as recent opinion polls show support for the Tories dwindling since the General Election.
Polling published last month by Find Out Now saw the Tories in third place for voting intention. Reform UK topped the survey at 29%, with Labour down two points from the week before on 23%.
This placed Reform eight points ahead of the Tories on 21%, with Lib Dems on 12% and the Greens on 9%.
This likely sent shockwaves through the Conservative party who are trying to retain voters, despite polling at the lowest level since losing to Sir Keir Starmer’s party in July 2024.
“If bungling Badenoch fails to deliver in the Local Elections,” a Liberal Democrat source told the news channel, “the writing will truly be on the wall for her and for the Conservative Party.”
The inside source also revealed that Lib Dem Cllr David McCobb hosted a covert meeting last month, during which activists were deployed to key areas and door-knocking efforts increased ahead of May 1.
The areas Ms Badenoch will head-to-head with Mr Davey include Buckinghamshire, Cambridgeshire, Cornwall, Devon, Gloucestershire, Hertfordshire, Kent, Oxfordshire, Shropshire and Wiltshire.
The last election saw the Lib Dems take 20 seats from the Tories across the 10 counties.
In 2021, Oxfordshire, once a true blue seat, lost to the Lib Dems at the council level. The 2024 General Election also marked a symbolic moment for Mr Davey’s party, gaining the seats of Witney, formerly Tory PM David Cameron’s, and Henley, formerly Boris Johnson’s.
