There is an island in the South Pacific half the size of Wales which is set to become the world’s youngest country.
Bougainville is a remote part of Papua New Guinea where the mining giant Rio Tinto once operated a copper mine.
Billions were made from the island’s rich deposits but locals remained relatively poor despite the huge windfall made for shareholders.
Local landowners forced the Panguna mine to close in 1989 amid fury about exploitation and damage to the island’s environment.
After an uprising and civil war in the 1990s, the islanders took back their land, with rebel leader Ishmael Toroama going on to lead the burgeoning region.
Up to 20,000 islanders died during the conflict, which also left thousands missing. Papua New Guinea and the island signed a peace deal in 2001, which promised Bougainville greater powers and an independence referendum by 2020.
In 2019, that vote was held, resulting in an 87.4 percent turnout and independence favoured by 97.7 percent of the votes.
Still an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, Bougainville is seeking independence by 2027, but Papua New Guinea’s parliament has to ratify the vote.
It is said to be unlikely to do so because of fears the island’s secession will have a domino effect and encourage other parts of Papua New Guinea to seek independence.
Bougainville first called for an independence referendum or to be incorporated into the Solomon Islands in 1968, when Papua New Guinea was controlled by Australia.
A fortnight before Papua New Guinea declared its own independence, Bougainville did the same, but that bid was ultimately unsuccessful.
Mr Toroama and Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister, James Marape, have agreed on a settlement, but according to the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) each side understands it differently.
Mr Marape is said to understand the 2027 date is for a settlement to be reached, while Mr Toroama insists the two governments have agreed to Bougainville’s independence by that year.
ISIP said in an analysis in 2022: “A return to civil war does not seem likely or imminent. But if Papua New Guinea is uncompromising and Bougainvilleans become increasingly frustrated with the slow pace of consultations, it may raise the risk of instability in Bougainville.”
The World recently reported that Mr Toroama has been holding out to the United States the prospect of establishing a military base on the island.
He is also reportedly trying to tempt Western companies with Bougainville’s rich mineral deposits in a bid to boost the island’s economy.
Washington may be tempted by the offer as it seeks to maintain its supremacy in the Pacific and secure supplies of a key mineral required in the manufacture of fighter jets, warships and munitions.
