The small village where Reform is surging and Labour face being blown away | Politics | News

As you venture into this small village in the south Wales valleys, the road gently ascends, flanked by narrow streets of terraced houses nestled on the valley-side. The area is adorned with boards, predominantly in colours that seem out of place for a former pit village where the Windsor Colliery operated for nearly a century.

The boards proudly displayed outside homes are overwhelmingly the light blue of Reform UK and the green and yellow of Plaid Cymru. Despite Labour having held the Caerphilly constituency, within which the village of Abertridwr sits, since its inception there are now few red boards in sight as the Senedd by-election looms following the passing of Hefin David MS.

By-elections are notorious for their unpredictable outcomes. However, all eyes are on Abertridwr as voters prepare to head to the polls on October 23.

Observers across Wales and the UK are keenly watching to gauge the fragility of Labour’s vote in this once stronghold area and what it could imply for the upcoming Senedd election next year and potentially even Keir Starmer’s future.

Tensions were palpable in the Senedd this week when Welsh Labour leader and First Minister Eluned Morgan accused Reform of stirring up division by campaigning on immigration in an area which has one of the lowest proportions of residents born outside the UK in Wales, with only 2.9% of people born outside of the UK, according to the last census, reports WalesOnline.

The most controversial aspect of Reform’s campaign centres on its criticism of the Welsh Government’s Nation of Sanctuary programme.

This initiative has seen the Welsh Government allocate £55m over the past six years — 0.05% of its £29bn annual budget — primarily to support Ukrainians settling in Wales whilst conflict devastates their homeland.

Both Ms Morgan and Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth have branded Reform as divisive, accusing them of misleading voters by portraying the Nation of Sanctuary as concerning asylum seekers, which they insist it is not.

They maintain it was created to establish Wales as a welcoming destination for those escaping persecution and warfare, with most funding directed towards helping Ukrainian refugees access English tuition, secure employment, and integrate as contributing community members.

Yet the forceful condemnation from both Plaid and Labour has failed to achieve their desired impact on some Abertridwr residents who feel branded as racist for harbouring immigration concerns. They believe it is Labour and Plaid fuelling discord through their attacks on Reform.

One voter, Jackie, declined to provide her surname, claiming she has endured “so much abuse” for supporting Reform.

The Welsh speaker and former Plaid supporter told WalesOnline: “Plaid have really rallied it in the village. We’re seen as Nazis, racists. I think that’s lazy politics. They are causing the division because they are leading with fear.”

She also alleges that her posts about Reform, including messages inquiring if anyone would like Reform placards for their homes, have been removed from local community groups by councillors.

Jackie stated that they focus on Reform’s views about immigration, rather than any of their other policies, “it’s quite a dirty race in that they won’t let Reform voters get off the immigration thing,” she said. However, she expressed concern about the levels of migration into Wales.

“I don’t think it is misleading for Reform to focus on migration, there are hotels in Cardiff that are being used to house asylum seekers. My opinion is that people in the village are not looking further than that, that’s what they see,” she explained.

“At the moment immigration is not a problem here but I think it will become an issue when people start to see them coming into rural, community-based areas. We welcome everybody but people will start to think ‘what about what I need? My house is falling apart’ and then it will start hitting them.”

When questioned about why immigration matters in a Senedd by-election when it is not a devolved issue, Jackie responded: “We’re governed by Westminster on immigration. If they start to say ‘bring us more, bring us more,’ Plaid won’t say no to that will they?”.

Robert Morgan, 55, is also concerned about immigration. He said: “We need to have change in this country. We shouldn’t have people coming here illegally. I think Reform are the only party who will do that change. I just feel he [Nigel Farage] will make a big difference to us.”

Robert, who was compelled to stop working several years ago due to poor health and resides with his wife Joanne, 54, said he is worried about the NHS becoming swamped and that working-class people appear to keep getting more impoverished.

Discussing asylum seekers, he said: “They’re not earning anything. We’re paying money for them to go into hotels. That’s not where our taxes should be going.”

Robert, a former Conservative supporter, said he has positioned his Reform flags and posters up high amid fears that they would be removed otherwise. It’s occurred at a nearby pub, his wife Joanne revealed.

Robert added that Plaid campaigners would visit the doors of Labour supporters and have a conversation, but he alleges they avoid any houses with Reform signage, saying, “we feel alienated”.

One person who finds the emphasis on migration and the criticism of Welsh Labour’s Nation of Sanctuary policy troubling is Vira Mandrika, 47.

She is a member of the Ukrainian community in Caerphilly. This week they lodged a formal complaint to the returning officer, contending that Reform’s election material constitutes disinformation.

Vira, who resides in Bedwas with her Welsh partner, arrived in the UK just over a year ago on a Homes for Ukraine visa. Back in Ukraine, Vira held a managerial role in a major firm and since relocating to the UK, she has secured a part-time position as a sales advisor, a job she claims was facilitated by the scheme.

“We as the Ukrainian community want to explain what this scheme actually is and how important it is to be supported. We feel that Reform are misrepresenting the scheme as a problem to Welsh society,” she stated.

“They make it seem like it’s for ‘illegal’ immigrants, but it’s not, most of the money was spent on Ukrainian refugees, who are absolutely legal here.”

She expressed that it is the “general language” used in campaign material which is misleading the public.

A Reform UK leaflet distributed this week states: “Enablers in Plaid Cymru enthusiastically support Labour’s £55m ‘Nation of Sanctuary’ scheme – which gives preferential treatment to asylum seekers, while the number of migrants crossing the Channel has hit 50,000 during Keir Starmer’s term in office.”

In the Senedd, Reform UK MS Laura Anne Jones claimed the policy “simply puts a neon sign above Wales that suggests the rest of the world come here, possibly illegally, use our services, our benefits, our housing, when our NHS is already stretched to the max and we have veterans sleeping on the street”.

Another letter distributed by Reform declares: “Only Reform opposes Labour and Plaid’s £55 million Nation of Sanctuary scheme for asylum seekers.”

A formal complaint regarding this statement has been lodged, claiming it is “false and misleading”.

Vira argued that since over £45 million of this funding was allocated to Ukrainian nationals, they consider the leaflet’s exclusive use of the term “asylum seekers” to be misleading.

Asylum seekers are individuals who have sought protection and are awaiting determination of their refugee status. They cannot work whilst this decision is pending. Should they be granted refugee status, this often provides a route to applying for indefinite leave to remain in the UK.

By contrast, Ukrainians are not asylum seekers and do not hold refugee status. They were granted temporary visas permitting them to reside in the UK by the UK Government following Russia’s 2022 invasion. They have no route to permanent residency. Ukrainian nationals are simply permitted to live here under the Homes for Ukraine scheme or the Ukraine Family Scheme.

In September it was announced they would be permitted to apply to extend these visas for another two years whilst the conflict with Russia continues.

However, both Conservative and Labour governments in Westminster have stated the visas remain temporary. The complaint, shared with WalesOnline, reads: “The leaflet’s wording distorts public understanding of Welsh Government spending and misleads voters about a policy that has primarily supported Ukrainian war refugees – many of whom now work in Welsh communities, including in the NHS, schools, and care sectors. I believe this constitutes disinformation in campaign material and should be reviewed for potential breaches of electoral law or standards.”

A spokesperson for Reform UK Wales stated that the party offers “no apology for opposing the Nation of Sanctuary plan.” A poll conducted by ITV Wales last month revealed that 49% of people in Wales are against the Nation of Sanctuary, while 34% support it.

Vira expressed her disappointment at seeing the Nation of Sanctuary being used as a political tool by Reform. “The programme gave us the possibility to be integrated into Wales,” she said.

“I think people should understand how difficult it is to move from your home, have to restart your life from zero and learn a new language. It’s important to be supported with English classes, help to find a job so we can contribute to Wales.”

She further added that she is “grateful” for the warm welcome she has received in Wales.

Whilst immigration may be dominating campaign literature and sparked the most heated exchange during First Minister’s Questions this week, local concerns are set to play a crucial part in this election. Both Reform and Plaid supporters highlighted how local matters and living costs are shaping their voting intentions.

These community concerns encompass threatened library closures, demands for additional pedestrian crossings, dog waste bins and speed cameras to prevent local streets being treated like a “race track.”

Joanne and Jackie revealed they were attracted to Reform not through its immigration stance, but by the party’s 2024 General Election manifesto commitment to lift the income tax threshold to £20,000. She explained that as her family aren’t high earners, such a policy would deliver a “huge impact”.

Reform UK hasn’t yet confirmed whether its income tax threshold proposal will feature in its Welsh manifesto for next year’s Senedd election and it remains unclear how the party would finance the policy if implemented.

Robert expressed interest in Mr Farage’s proposals to boost efficiency within councils and the NHS. When questioned about his priority if Reform secured victory, he declared: “Caerphilly needs cleaning up. I don’t know what money is being spent on but it isn’t Caerphilly .”

Kenny Matthews, a local resident who has been actively campaigning to save Abertridwr library, will be focusing on local issues rather than immigration when he casts his vote in the upcoming by-election. He expressed his strong opposition to Reform, stating: “I like my Welsh flag. They see Wales as a stepping stone to England, that’s it,”.

He accused Reform of stoking tensions about immigration within the community, saying: “Immigration isn’t a problem here. It’s sad to see because there are some horrible people in the world.”

He also praised the “marvellous” nurses and doctors in the area who weren’t born in the UK, expressing gratitude for their service.

The political landscape in Caerphilly is set to be closely monitored in the coming weeks. Many believe it’s a straight fight between Reform’s Llyr Powell and Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.

If the sentiments expressed on the doorsteps of Abertridwr are anything to go by, it appears to be shaping up as a two-horse race.

A victory for either party would send a clear message to Labour, which has historically held the seat.

The outcome of the Caerphilly seat will be closely watched, not just for who wins, but also for what it reveals about public sentiment and effective messaging ahead of next year’s Senedd election.

The First Minister has suggested that the nation is at a critical juncture. “I genuinely think that people need to decide on which side of this argument they’re on,” she stated.

She further added: “Do they want to be on the side of division or do they want to be on the side of community cohesion and of hope? That is a question that people are going to have to ask themselves in the next few months, and in Caerphilly, in the next few days.”

Eluned Morgan isn’t alone in believing that the debate over immigration and community division has reached a pivotal stage. A recent Senedd committee report on social cohesion in Wales warned that without intervention, tensions could escalate into “widespread civil unrest”.

In response to allegations that its campaign material on the Nation of Sanctuary was misleading, a spokesperson for Reform UK Wales said: “We make no apology for opposing the Nation of Sanctuary plan.

“Polling shows that people in Wales want to see an end to this policy, and we’re the only party in with a chance in Caerphilly that will scrap it. It’s absolutely clear that you want to see this policy scrapped, vote Reform.”