A tiny naval stretch in northern Europe could one day prove to be the focal point of any conflict between NATO and the West. Slightly bigger than Wales, the Gulf of Finland serves as a key air and sea bridge from Russia to the rest of the world, allowing Vladimir Putin the ability to finance his war through sanction evasion.
The route, located to the north of Estonia and south of Finland, is regularly used by Russia’s “shadow fleet” to export oil and gas to international buyers in defiance of international sanctions. At just 80 miles at its widest point, the narrow seas corridor is vital in allowing Putin’s shadow fleet of ships with shady ownership details to continue to transport Russian goods across the world. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tshakna told ABC News: “Russia is using this corridor to export 60% of oil and gas from Russia.
“It’s very intensive. We’re talking about maybe 400 or more vessels per week. It’s a huge thing.”
Tshakna believes that in the event of conflict with NATO, the strip would see military resources deployed quickly to choke off Putin’s access to vital income to fund conflict.
He added: “If we are talking about Russian aggression, if it started, of course, it will be closed and controlled totally by NATO, our allies and us,” adding that for now “Russia has a right to pass.”
International security expert Tom Keatinge believes that the chances of significant military activity occurring in the area in the event of war are high.
He told the Sun: “It’s obviously very sensitive from a NATO perspective. There’s a lot of military planes flying over that area… but it’s also very sensitive for the Russians.”
Of the use of the Russian shadow fleet, he added: “It has enabled Russia to keep its coffers full and to really dampen the impact of sanctions.”
Keatinge also said: “The Russian Federation is ready to protect the ‘shadow fleet’… the situation is really serious.”
The area has been at the centre of many of Russian forces incursions into NATO territory in recent months.
Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russian aircraft have violated Estonian airspace eight times, with four incursions happening this year.
The increased tempo of Russian incursions has forced the NATO alliance to consider who it should respond to Russian drones and planes in its airspace.
Last month, three Russian MiG-31 jets entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf, spending 12 minutes in NATO airspace and travelling nearly 125 miles west in what was described as a “unprecedentedly brazen” incursion.
The incident saw Estonia request a NATO Article 4 consultation, with the alliance later issuing a statement warning Russia that it would use “all necessary military and non-military tools” to defend itself, condemning Moscow for a “pattern of increasingly irresponsible behaviour.
Tsahkna defended the decision not to shoot down the Russia planes, claiming: “There was no immediate military threat to Estonia this time.
“If there would have been a direct military threat to Estonia, all these protocols and everything are there, NATO could have acted.”