When Bears head coach Ben Johnson announced his intentions to break the NFL’s points-per-game scoring record, he put every fantasy manager on notice: Draft Bears or suffer defeat. But understanding the team’s passing game has turned into one of the most intriguing puzzles in fantasy football.
Decoding how Johnson deploys his primary pass catchers across different personnel groupings is essential for trying to optimize weekly starting lineups. Understanding these structural tendencies also reveals strong trade-target opportunities before the rest of your league catches on.
Luther Burden III has established himself as an efficiency juggernaut, particularly when Chicago operates out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end). Burden leads the Bears with 145 routes run in three-receiver sets, edging out Rome Odunze at 143 and Kalif Raymond at 124.
Burden’s underlying numbers are exceptional. Among all wide receivers with at least 300 routes run since the start of 2025, Burden ranks fourth in yards per route run and sits inside the top 20 in targets per route run.
His ability to earn targets quickly makes him a high-floor WR2 option in high-volume passing games. Managers should target Burden via trade before a favorable stretch of pass-funnel defenses, as his 11-personnel dominance promises elite PPR production whenever game scripts favor up-tempo passing.
Though Burden controls the spread look, Odunze serves as the ultimate every-down perimeter engine. He leads the team in total routes across every formation, compiling 143 routes in 11 personnel, 74 routes in 12 personnel, and 17 routes in 13 personnel. In contrast, Burden drops to 33 routes in 12 personnel and just four in 13 personnel, while Raymond runs 44 and 2, respectively.
Beyond his route dominance, Odunze is Chicago’s premiere downfield weapon. Out of 52 qualifying wide receivers with 30 or more targets this season, Odunze ranks fourth in the percentage of targets traveling 15 or more air yards. Burden sits 23rd in that metric, and Raymond ranks near the bottom at 49th. Odunze should be started as a high-upside WR2 against single-coverage secondary units, and he makes an outstanding trade target because his full-field snap share guarantees production regardless of game flow.
Raymond fills a steady complementary role, but his ceiling remains limited by depth of target and formation caps. Raymond operates mostly underneath, making him a matchup-dependent bench asset best reserved for deep PPR formats or heavy bye-week replacement scenarios.
The most dramatic trajectory in Johnson’s offense belongs to tight end Colston Loveland. In most expected PPR points models, it reveals a clear midseason expansion in Loveland’s role. He began the year with modest expected PPR tallies of 6.3, 6.6 and 6.8 over the first three weeks. His high-value opportunity then exploded to 17.2 expected points, 8.4, 14.0 and 20.7 over the next four. This upward trend reflects increased red zone prioritization and intermediate target share.
Loveland has transitioned from a streaming option into a locked-in TE1. Fantasy managers attempting to trade for Loveland should act immediately, as his underlying usage numbers confirm an elite weekly ceiling at a thin position.
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By tailoring your lineup decisions around Johnson’s precise personnel tendencies and target depth profiles, you can consistently capitalize on every Bears pass catcher’s unique ceiling. Acquiring Burden, Odunze or Loveland before their respective blowout scripts occur will give your fantasy roster league-winning upside down the stretch.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on X @rotobuzzguy, catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Ch. 87) weekdays from 6-8 p.m. and dominate your leagues with the latest football news and advice from Fantasy Alarm.
