Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has earned a fearsome reputation over his long reign for political caution, strict conservatism and absolute ruthlessness. But most of all, he is known for one thing — stubbornness.
And even as his top generals are killed, Iran’s prized nuclear sites are bombed and enemy jets circle his capital, Khamenei this week rebuffed US President Donald Trump’s demand to stand down, vowing: “The Iranian nation will stand firmly against any imposed war, just as it always has,” reports The Telegraph.
Yet Trump is poised to make a decision on whether to unleash American bombers alongside Israel — a move that would further tip the balance of the brutal conflict.
Here are the eight scenarios which could play out after a US attack:
Assassination
Reports suggest the US President blocked an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei in the opening salvo of the war.
Trump even hinted at Khamenei’s vulnerability, boasting that he knew exactly where the Supreme Leader was, before warning chillingly that Khamenei was safe “for now.”
And Israel is losing patience too. On Thursday, Defence Minister Israel Katz declared Khamenei “can no longer be allowed to exist” after Iranian attacks injured dozens at a hospital in Beersheba. This threat could still be carried out.
Uprising crushed
A revolution would require Iranians brave enough to rise up — but many would-be revolutionaries have already fled for their lives from Tehran.
The regime’s ruthless security apparatus remains intact, too. The IRGC, police and Basij militia have been preparing for an anti-regime uprising for years — an uprising by the people of Iran is possible, however the security services would move to crush protests mercilessly.
No obvious alternative leader
There is also no obvious Nelson Mandela-style figure for Iranians to rally around.
Opposition figure Maryam Rajavi is reviled inside Iran. Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Shah’s son, has monarchist followers but is seen by some as a misguided figurehead after remarks seeming to excuse Israel’s strikes. If no alternative leader emerges then any uprising could fizzle out or be eliminated.
A smooth succession?
Despite the chaos brought to the regime by Israel, Tehran already has a plan. Ali Khamenei has been ailing for a considerable time, and talk of who will succeed him has long preoccupied Iran’s elite.
Before the conflict, the most likely heir was Khamenei’s son, 55-year-old Mojtaba. A veteran of the Iran–Iraq war with close ties to the IRGC, he would have the support of the guns — assuming enough IRGC officers have survived Israel’s campaign.
Ayatollah removed
That might not stop more ambitious figures. Some Army or IRGC generals could decide that Khamenei’s obstinacy is endangering them all and US intervention could give them the excuse to act preemptively against him.
“This has been my prognosis for a while,” Iranian historian Arash Azizi told The Telegraph. “That either when Khamenei dies or before he dies, some group of people will effectively do some sort of a coup inside the Islamic Republic.”
Key figures like Ali Shamkhani — who survived an Israeli assassination attempt — and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, a former IRGC commander with long-held ambitions to rule, may jump at the chance to take power. What form of government they would herald is unclear at present, however their existing links to the regime suggest they may remain hardline.
A military coup
The IRGC itself could pivot to protect its interests. They might trade the nuclear program for self-preservation — even liberalising some domestic policy — though there is also a powerful faction who believe Khamenei’s only mistake was not to race faster toward the bomb.
A failed state?
Even darker possibilities loom. Should Khamenei fall without a successor able to take control, Iran could collapse into anarchy and civil war — its people caught between ruinous airstrikes and deep ethnic and religious divisions.
For millions of Iranians, this would be a devastating outcome.
A reformist government
More optimistically, figures like former president Hassan Rouhani, ex-foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and one-time speaker Ali Larijani might attempt to lead a coalition focused on reform, standing down nuclear ambitions and winding back hostilities with Israel.
For many in the West – Iranians and non-Iranians alike – this would be the most favoured outcome.
It is a tantalising possibility, which if realised, could open a new, brighter chaptor for the Iranian nation – and the world.