Rachel Reeves and Yvette Cooper are just two of the Labour heavyweights facing the prospect of losing their seats. This comes according to a new MRP poll that projects Reform UK winning 445 Commons seats at the next General Election – a majority far larger than Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.
The survey, carried out by PLMR and Electoral Calculus among 7,449 adults between September 10 and 18, 2025, cuts Labour’s seats to just 73. It leaves the Conservatives with a lowly seven, the Liberal Democrats on 42 and the SNP on 41. It puts Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, on 36%, maintaining a 15-point lead over Labour, on 21%. The Tories are on 15%.
Reform UK’s Head of Policy, Zia Yusuf, reacted on X: “WOW. New MRP poll by Daily Mail puts Reform on 445 seats – biggest majority ever, the Tories down to 7 seats! … Reeves, Cooper, Phillipson and Miliband, Mahmood and Streeting would all lose their seats.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves won her seat in 2024 with a 12,392 majority, beating the Conservatives’ Lee Farmer. But the area — which voted 52% Leave — has turned against her inheritance tax plans and migration stance.
Reform’s promises to cut energy bills and stop small boat crossings appear to appeal strongly to voters in Leeds’s suburban and rural mix.
Home Secretary Yvette Cooper held on by 6,630 votes last year, but Reform is now forecast to edge ahead. The seat, which voted 58% Leave, has seen rising anger over overcrowded prisons and fuel payment cuts — issues within Cooper’s brief. Reform’s “broken Britain” message is resonating in this former mining district, where turnout slumped to 51% in 2024.
Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson’s 7,169 majority looks fragile. The MRP poll shows Reform’s Sam Woods-Brass overtaking her in this shipbuilding area, which voted 60% Leave.
Families on below-average incomes are alienated by Labour’s plan to add VAT to private school fees. Reform’s focus on apprenticeships and opposition to “woke” lessons have found traction.
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s majority of 9,126 is under threat in a seat that backed Leave by 69%. His push for net zero policies and wind farms has gone down badly amid soaring energy bills. Former coalfield voters blame rising costs and flooding on government inaction, while Reform’s fossil-fuel-friendly stance has proved attractive.
Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood faces a different challenge. Her diverse constituency, 70% non-white, has seen strong support for Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party, fuelled by anger over Labour’s Gaza policy.
Ms Mahmood’s handling of prisons and stop-and-search has added to local unrest. The poll predicts Your Party taking the seat comfortably.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting won by just 528 votes in 2024, narrowly beating independent Leanne Mohamad. His vote share collapsed from 55% to 33%.
Anger over his support for Israel and NHS waiting lists now at 7.6 million has driven voters towards Your Party. The new forecast shows Streeting losing decisively.
Reform’s rise is powered by frustration with Labour’s cautious economic policies and with a Conservative Party viewed as spent.
Its gains come largely from Tory switchers and low Labour turnout, particularly in northern and Midlands seats that backed Brexit.
The poll’s use of multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) allows detailed, postcode-level predictions and closely matched the 2024 election.
Experts say the results highlight the scale of disillusionment facing Sir Keir Starmer just a year into government.
Reform’s aggressive campaigning and clear messaging on migration and living costs have given it momentum, while divisions over Gaza and tax policy have eroded Labour’s urban base.
Tactical voting with Conservatives may save a handful of seats, but the MRP poll suggests it would make little overall difference. Without major policy shifts, analysts warn, Sir Keir could see not only his majority but his authority evaporate.