It’s been a funky ride for Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns in 2026.
There have been ups and downs, zigs and zags, but ultimately it’s not a surprise to see the Longhorns sitting where they are as we hit the final stretch of the regular season.
The No. 10 team in the country, Texas is 6-2 overall, 3-2 in the SEC, and right on the bubble for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
One more loss, however, and it could be curtains for the Longhorns, who can ill-afford to miss the big dance for a second year running. Not with the hype that Steve Sarkisian and Manning drummed up over the last few years.
And a trip to Missouri to take on the No. 18 Tigers (6-2, 3-2 SEC) is far from a given. Texas is just a 2.5-point favorite over Eli Drinkwitz’s stingy cats.
Texas vs. Missouri odds, prediction
It’s really hard to get a grip on Texas this season.
On one hand, they’re 6-2 against a brutal schedule and have collected wins over Ohio State and Ole Miss, but on the other hand, they have had so many milquetoast performances that we really don’t know which version of Texas will show up on any given Saturday.
Heck, you can even nitpick blowouts against UTSA and Mississippi State. The defense only allowed nine points combined in those wins, but the offense was pretty ordinary, gaining 4.8 and 5.3 yards per play, respectively.
Those middling offensive numbers have plagued the Longhorns all season. Texas ranks 84th in FBS in yards per play (5.2) and 34th in yards per pass (7.9).
With an elite defense, which the Longhorns have, those numbers can get you results, but that isn’t how this was supposed to go. Not with Manning under center.
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As a matter of fact, it’s Missouri that boasts the better offensive numbers overall this season. You can argue that the Tigers have achieved those results against a much better schedule, but the point is that Texas was supposed to be in an elite class in 2026, well ahead of the Tigers.
Until Manning and the Longhorns offense get on track, they will be a fade team for me — especially when they’re a favorite taking on a terrific defense in a hostile environment.
The Play: Missouri moneyline (+120, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
