It takes something special to beat Carlos Alcaraz these days.
Newly minted with a career Grand Slam after his triumph at the Australian Open, Alcaraz has taken his game to rarefied heights in 2026. The Spaniard has yet to lose a match this season, winning titles in Melbourne and then Doha.
Alcaraz is very likely to run his record to 16-0 on Thursday night. He’s a -3500 favorite to beat Cam Norrie in the quarterfinals at the Indian Wells Masters.
Indian Wells: Alcaraz vs. Norrie odds, prediction
The odds tell you everything you need to know about the tale of the tape for this match. Alcaraz is the far superior player. He’s a savant on the court, and he’s only getting better with each passing match. His offensive game is now unmatched, and he’s been the best defensive player in the sport for years.
He’s got a laundry list of superpowers. But Norrie may have his kryptonite.
Norrie, a former Indian Wells champion, has three wins in five matches against Alcaraz, including one in their last meeting at the Paris Masters late in 2025.
What’s interesting about Norrie’s success against Alcaraz is that the Brit doesn’t really have any weapons. He’s got a decent attacking game, and he’s a competitive defender, but he’s not going to blow you off the court with any of his tools.
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Norrie does bring one elite skill to the table, though it’s hard to measure on paper: Relentlessness. A speedy, tireless competitor, the former World No. 8 never gives up on a point, and will stick around in a match, hoping to capitalize on any dip in form or fatigue. If you give him an opening, Norrie will take it.
That ability to hang around always makes him an interesting option as an underdog, especially with the market getting so carried away with Alcaraz’s form.
I’ll take a shot on Norrie to stick around in this match and push Alcaraz to the brink. Something he’s done quite often in his career already.
The Play: Carlos Alcaraz to win 2-1 (+380, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
