The way in which the new US government under Donald Trump addresses the conflict in Ukraine could have severe implications for the future of Taiwan, an expert has warned.
China has made no secret of its desire to “reunify” Taiwan and regularly holds military drills around the island rehearsing the method by which it would take it back by force.
For decades, US support for Taiwan has prevented a burgeoning China from acting upon its desire.
But with the re-election of Donald Trump as US president, there are fears that his promise of ending the war in Ukraine within a day of taking office would be done by significant concessions to Vladimir Putin, forever shifting the global balance of power and signalling a lack of willingness on the part of the US to intervene in foreign conflict.
Nicholas Drummond is a defence industry analyst & consultant specialising in Land Warfare. He believes that allowing Putin to “get away” with his invasion of Ukraine would “send a terrible message to China.”
Speaking to Express.co.uk, Drummond said: “Allowing Putin to get away with unprovoked aggression would send a terrible message to China. It might feel empowered to seize Taiwan.
“We must hope that Trump understands and accepts the risks posed by Russia and China, and how any response he might make could make a wider conflict more rather than less probable.”
Since the end of the Second World War, the US has been the world’s pre-eminent superpower, although that status is under threat from an ever-growing China.
As one superpower prepares for the return of a former president, its actions in Ukraine could have significant implications in the balance of global power with another superpower in China.
Weakness in the face of Russian aggression could be a fatal blow in the United States’ reign as the pre-eminent global power and could give Xi Jinping in China the signal that the invasion of Taiwan could be pulled off.
Last month, China intensified combat patrols in the strait of Taiwan in response to the US approval of $2billion (£1.54bn) worth of arms sales to the self-governing island.
US intelligence has long believed that the annexation of Taiwan is one of President Xi Jinping’s long term strategic aims, a move that could potentially bring the US and China into indirect conflict.
It remains unclear how Trump plans to end the war but with the appointment of several critics of the country’s funding to Ukraine already confirmed, the way in which the US attempts to resolve the conflict could have significant impact on the future of Taiwan.
