The downfall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria could see Israel threatened by the country’s new leadership and also make the regime in Iran more vulnerable, an expert told the Daily Express.
Last week, Syrian rebels led by Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept through the major cities of Syria, forcing Assad to flee on Sunday.
It was a historic moment that brought the Assad family regime’s 53-year rule, characterised by brutal oppression and violence, to an end.
Simon Waldman, a Middle East expert at King’s College London, says the fall of Assad could have significant ramifications for other countries in the Middle East – including Iran and Israel.
HTS leader – Abu Mohammad al-Jolani – has sought to reassure the West, saying this week that the main threat to Syria is “from the Iranian militias, Hezbollah and the regime which committed the massacres we are seeing today.”
But his links to Al-Qaeda remain a concern for Israel and Western allies. The HTS is a proscribed terrorist organisation in the UK and has roots in Osama Bin Laden’s terror group. However, over the past few years, the group and its leader have tried to clean up their image and share more tolerant messages minorities in Syria.
Mr Waldman told the Daily Express: “The primary concern of HTS in the short to medium term is to consolidate power in Syria. HTS will want to purge institutions of any supporters of Assad.
“HTS claims it will have a technocratic government, but best believe that these technocrats would hold their tongues in criticising HTS or its ideology.
“In the long-term this may very well be a threat to Israel. It is highly unlikely that there will be a peace treaty between Israel and Syria soon.”
Israel and Syria remain embroiled in a territorial dispute over the Golan Heights, two-thirds of which Israel has occupied since 1967.
After Assad’s regime collapsed, Israel sent troops to establish a buffer zone in the Golan Heights, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned that the territory will remain under his country’s jurisdiction for “eternity.”
Mr Netanyahu also said Israel wants a relationship with Syria, but warned: “If the new regime in Syria allows Iran to re-establish itself, or allows the transfer of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah – we will respond forcefully and we will exact a heavy price.”
Mr Waldman also highlights how Assad’s downfall in Syria could have drastic ramifications for the regime in Iran.
Iran-backed Hezbollah played a vital role in keeping Assad in power during the Syrian Civil War. However, the group has been severely damaged by Israel’s recent attacks in Beirut, Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza has been nearly dismantled by Israel’s ongoing war in the Palestinian region.
Mr Waldman says this, combined with the Iranian regime’s domestic fragility, will make the Islamic Republic’s leader Ayatollah Khamanei more vulnerable.
He added: Several, things have made Iran’s regime vulnerable. Assad has fallen, Hamas barely functions, and Hezbollah has been shattered. The Islamic Republic’s leader Ayatollah Khamenei is unwell and may not live that long so has groomed his son to replace him.
“Many Iranians may not like this and might take to the streets. The country has already experienced bouts of civil unrest. The Islamic Republic fears for the future of its regime.”
Mr Waldman added that the Iranian regime will respond to recent events by “doubling down on its nuclear [weapons] project.”
Ayatollah Khamenei has already voiced his anger after the deposal of Assad, branding it a US and Israeli plot.
He claimed: “There should be no doubt that what happened in Syria is the product of a joint American and Zionist plan. Yes, a neighbouring government in Syria plays an obvious role in this regard, and is still playing it – everyone sees this – but the main conspirator, mastermind, and command centre are in America and the Zionist regime.
“We have evidence. This evidence leaves no room for doubt.”
On Friday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken urged the Middle East to help facilitate a peaceful transition of power in Syria.
He added that Syria needs international support after decades of dictatorial rule.
