We should have a very different Sun Belt in 2026.
Not only did the conference lose Texas State and add Louisiana Tech a year earlier than expected, but James Madison will look like a completely different team after it represented the Fun Belt at the College Football Playoff last winter.
JMU will once again lose a promising head coach, as Bob Chesney will follow the path of Curt Cignetti from the sidelines at Bridgeforth Stadium to a Power 4 program.
But instead of replacing Chesney with another up-and-comer, the Dukes hired Billy Napier after his stint at Florida.
Napier is a known commodity to Sun Belt diehards, as he turned Louisiana into the conference’s headlining act during his four-season stint.
The massive amount of turnover at James Madison isn’t scaring off the bookies, as the Dukes are the +270 favorites to repeat, putting them ahead of 2025 surprise Old Dominion (+460).
Like the Dukes, the Monarchs will look quite different this season.
Ricky Rahne is still in charge (although he will be a hot commodity if Old Dominion builds off its 2025 success), but he’ll be dealing with a ton of roster turnover.
ODU ranks 114th in returning production, and its star quarterback, Colton Joseph, is now at Wisconsin.
The Sun Belt always packs plenty of surprises each season, but with the two favorites dealing with so much change, I expect things to be even funkier than usual in the Fun Belt.
Best bet: Coastal Carolina (45/1, DraftKings)
It wasn’t long ago that Jamey Chadwell turned Coastal Carolina into a powerhouse in the Sun Belt.
The Chanticleers went 31-6 in Chadwell’s last three seasons (2019-21), but the momentum dissipated when he departed for the gig at Liberty.
A couple of backward steps under Tim Beck, and the Chanticleers were in need of a reboot.
Ryan Beard, who just guided Missouri State to a bowl game in its first FBS season, has been charged with guiding it.
I think it’s a coaching change worth betting on.
Like any new coach in the modern game, Beard worked quickly to reshape his roster with plenty of players from his old one.
A dozen former Missouri State deckhands are coming over with Beard, including freshman quarterback Deuce Bailey and wide receiver Tristan Gardiner.
Bailey will fight for playing time against former Florida State and Arkansas quarterback Trever Jackson, but whoever wins the job will have plenty of weapons to work with, including a few holdovers from last year’s Chanticleers.
The defense also has plenty of potential, as Beard was able to coerce a few standout defensive linemen to join him in Conway.
They’ll join a unit that already had some serious teeth thanks to defensive end Ibrahim Diawara and linebacker Tray Brown.
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Unlike James Madison or Old Dominion, transition should be a good thing for Coastal Carolina, as it was stodgy under Beck.
They Chanticleers weren’t terrible, but things were not pointing in the right direction. A jolt is just what this program needed, but it’s not like Beard is building this thing from the ground up.
A lot of pieces need to fit together, but in a wide-open conference I’m happy to bet on a long shot with a high ceiling instead of a lukewarm favorite.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
