Britain’s China Audit has painted a picture of a country under threat which could hurt other nations most without entering a military conflict. With the recent US initiative protecting the UK in the long run, with the tariff rules in the new UK-US trade pact conditional on supply-chain “requirements” that could force British firms to strip out Chinese components, the question of substituting Chinese supplies remains open. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has bluntly spelled out the stakes. “China’s rise has shaped the geopolitical landscape,” granting Beijing “dominance over most critical-mineral supply chains”, amidst existing warnings from Beijing on British trade policy with its partners.
If China can dictate the terms of trans-Atlantic trade, the urgent question for Britain is how to insulate its economy, starting with rare-earth security, so that the next chapter of that landscape is written in London, not Beijing. Could the overtures of the past Conservative governments to Central Asian states be the answer?
The Government’s endless reports have so far only created a sense of inevitable doom, as public opinion doubts No10’s ability to deliver.
A recent survey found that 70.9% of people in the UK support reducing dependence on China for rare earth minerals, reflecting growing awareness of the strategic importance of these elements.
Yet, the same poll indicated that 97% of respondents did not believe the UK could match China in supplying affordable consumer goods. Such a divergence surely must be a call to action for British policymakers to find and secure new supply chains and resources, yet there is no great deal of action happening.
In April 2025 Kazakhstan announced the discovery of what may be its biggest rare-earth discovery yet, at the Zhana Kazakhstan site, measured in the tens of millions of tonnes and judged unusually rich in neodymium, cerium, lanthanum and yttrium.
Put into everyday terms, a single electric-vehicle motor needs only a couple of kilograms of neodymium-based magnets, while a modern offshore wind turbine can swallow more than half a tonne.
Secure just 10,000 tonnes of refined material from this new source and the UK could, in theory, assemble roughly 7million EV motors or finish upwards of fifteen thousand wind turbines annually, enough to make the country largely wind-powered, if creating somewhat of an eyesore.
Kazakhstan is determined to make the most of this windfall. Its geologists have already mapped the bulk of the country and keep striking new seams, with the new Kuirektykol prospect alone holding close to 1million tonnes of rare-earth ore.
Astana is now looking for partners with the cash and know-how to turn these finds into metal, and London, still wholly dependent on imports, has every reason to be first in line.
Mining such a colossal deposit is not a short-term endeavour. Kazakhstan aims to support increased funding for geological work and the training of highly qualified professionals.
Such efforts underline Kazakhstan’s ambition to become a major global supplier of REEs, setting it up as a competitor to China and a valuable potential partner in diversifying British mineral supply chains.
On the UK side, conversations about rare earth elements have surfaced in Parliament, notably during discussions about Sino-British relations.
Andrew Rosindell MP raised specific concerns over reliance on Chinese supply, echoing warnings voiced by other parliamentarians such as Andrew Snowden.
While the debate continues, there remains comparatively little large-scale action. These strategic questions will be debated on July 2 2025 at the UK Parliamentary Roundtable Middle Corridor – Strategic Investment and Cooperation Opportunities, where the ambassadors of Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Turkey are due to speak.
This gap between British capacity and need becomes even more pressing when considering that the UK itself has limited reserves of critical minerals.
Lithium exploration is ongoing in Cornwall and Devon, tin and tungsten resources are being re-evaluated with modern technology, and Scotland’s Northern Highlands and Grampian Highlands hold potential for graphite and rare earth elements.
However, none of these domestic sources comes close to meeting the UK’s current or future demand. The previous government’s Resilience for the Future: The UK’s Critical Minerals Strategy emphasised resilience and diversification, focusing on three approaches: accelerating domestic production, building robust international partnerships, and promoting a circular economy.
Despite these aims, the UK remains entirely reliant on imports for its rare earth supply, lacking both active mining and large-scale recycling programmes.
Demand is surging, especially for magnet metals like neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium – all crucial for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and even defence technologies.
Kazakhstan has identified more than 15 REE deposits, already producing eight of the 18 critical minerals cited by the British Geological Survey. It also possesses raw material bases for the remaining eight.
In March 2024, the UK and Kazakhstan established a Roadmap for Strategic Partnership in the critical minerals sector, aiming to bolster collaboration in extraction, processing, and lifecycle support.
The Geological Survey of Kazakhstan and the British Geological Survey are set to cooperate on knowledge sharing, alongside the formation of potential joint ventures.
Furthermore, the UK has pledged to help Kazakhstan develop export routes that circumvent Russia. Such routes are vital for delivering minerals safely to British processing facilities, including the Pensana Saltend plant in Yorkshire, which represents an early step towards UK-based rare earth processing.
Central to these efforts is the Middle Corridor, a trade route that links Central Asia to Europe via the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus, and Turkey.
By facilitating the flow of neodymium, lithium, and other critical metals, this corridor supports the UK’s broader objective of establishing a diversified and resilient supply chain.
Backed by initiatives like the EU’s Global Gateway and bolstered by UK government support, the corridor is becoming a crucial channel for transporting essential minerals needed for the UK’s transition to a greener economy.
Failing to act would leave Westminster watching from the side-lines while others carve up tomorrow’s resource map. Washington has already struck a minerals-for-investment pact with Kyiv that grants US firms first refusal on future Ukrainian offtake rights. Britain cannot afford a repeat.
By fast-tracking a long-term, security-focused partnership with Kazakhstan, backed by routes that bypass Russian territory, the UK can lock the rare but vital minerals that power our EVs, turbines and radar systems, fortify supply-chain sovereignty against Chinese coercion, and ensure that the Middle Corridor carries not just ore, but a guarantee of British prosperity and safety.