At least 150,000 more people will be pushed into relative poverty by the end of 2029-30 because of welfare changes, the government’s modelling has suggested. The figure is down from the 250,000 extra people estimated to have been left in relative poverty after housing costs under the original proposals.
The assessment released on Monday by the government said the impact on pensioners and kids is “negligible”.
Modelling published by the Department for Work and Pensions said the estimate does not include any “potential positive impact” from extra funding and measures to support people with disabilities and long-term health conditions into work.
Ministers have set out the concessions they will make, in the hope that the climbdown will be enough to secure backbench votes on Tuesday following a mass rebllion.
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced last week that changes to the personal independence payment will only apply to new claimants from November 2026, and ministers also rowed back on plans to cut the health-related element of Universal Credit after 126 Labour MPs signed an amendment that would have effectively killed the Government’s Bill.
Although the changes are expected to get some of those rebels on board, there are still threats of revolt.
Baroness Jacqui Smith – who served as a chief whip under Sir Tony Blair – was asked on Sky News what the consequences should be for Labour MPs who vote against the Government on the matter.
She said: “I don’t think talking about punishments, even as a former chief whip, is the constructive way forward here.”
Baroness Smith later added: “It’s always the case in legislation that you introduce the Bill, you have a second reading on the principles, and then you think about the detail as you take that through all of its stages in Parliament. I’m sure that that will continue to happen.”
Asked on Times Radio whether rebels will have the whip removed, education minister Baroness Smith said that it is important to “keep talking” to MPs.
The legislation is due to be voted on on Tuesday at its second reading, and the Government will amend the Bill at the Commons committee stage to put the changes in place.
The original plans restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (Pip) and cut the health-related element of universal credit.
The changes to Pip will now only apply to new claims from November 2026.
