CHINA’S decision to export missile propellant to Iran is a “clear message” to Keir Starmer that it opposes UK ambitions in the Middle East, experts warned last night.
It follows revelations from intelligence sources that two Iranian cargo vessels intend to transport 1,000 tonnes of sodium perchlorate, a chemical compound used to make missile propellant, from China within the next few weeks.
The move will place fresh pressure on beleaguered Chancellor Rachel Reeves who, dung a visit to Beijing earlier this month, confirmed she is seeking a long -term relationship with the Communist dictatorship, boasting that it “squarely in our national interest”.
The Iranian-flagged ships – the Golbon and the Jairan – are expected to carry more than 1,000 tonnes of sodium perchlorate, which is used to make ammonium perchlorate, the main ingredient for solid propellant for missiles.
The vessels will be carrying enough to produce 960 tonnes of ammonium perchlorate, which is 70% of the propellant for solid-fuel missiles.
That amount of ammonium perchlorate could produce 1,300 tonnes of propellant, enough to fuel 260 mid-range Iranian missiles such as the Kheibar Shekan or Haj Qassem.
According to sources, most of the shipment is intended to go the Iran’s notorious Islamic Republican Guards Corps (IRGC) , whose primary task is to further Iran’s divisive ambitions across the Middle East.
“China prefers to work in the shadows and obviously did not want this to be known. But it sends a clear message, not only in terms to Middle East security generally, but also to our own Government,” said regional expert Megan Sutcliffe, of the the Sibylline strategic risk group.
“Britain remains opposed to Iran’s disruptive activities throughout the region, whether thought IRGC forces, its nuclear forces or proxy groups.
“For China to supply Iran with Ingredients for missile propellant goes completely against this approach.”
In May last year, the UK officially described China as “an epoch-defining challenge with implications for almost every area of government policy and the everyday lives of British people.”
The refresh to the Integrated Security review, held near the last Government, added that China’s Communist Party (CCP) was becoming “increasingly explicit in its aim to shape a China-centric international order more favourable to its authoritarian system”, and expressed ‘particular concern” at its deepening relations with both Russia and Iran.
The deal between Beijing and Tehran – which is denied by China – was timed to leapfrog anticipated additional sanctions under US President Trump’s new administration, which is expected to return to a maximum pressure” policy with the fundamentalist theocracy.
But it will take Iran between two and three years before the Islamic regime can manufacture new ballistic missiles following Israeli airstrikes on missile manufacturing sites in Pachin, Khojir, and Shahroud.
“Estimates are that it will take Iran around nine months to resolve this in a basic way, and a urther 2-3 years before this facilities are fully optional,” said Megan Sutcliffe.
‘This could be shortened with help from Russia, but whether Moscow has any spare capacity given its commitment to Ukraine isn’t certain.”
The October 26 attacks by Israel – which include the deployment of special forces on the ground to plant high explosives – also neutralised Tehran’s ability to deliver new offensive drones to Russia for use in Ukraine, and threatened its ability to export large quantities of oil to China.
It followed Iran’s decision earlier that month to target Israel with more than 200 ballistic missiles in its largest offensive since its proxy, Hamas, cariried out the October 7, 2023 attacks.
“Nobody in the history of warfare has ever operated at the level of sophistication and success shown by Israel in October,” said Prof Gwythian Prins, a former advisor to Nato and the UK’s chiefs of staff.
“Israel knocked out Iran’s main assembly facility, which contained the planetary mixers for turning liquid fuel into solid fuel, and which was also mated warheads to missiles – and all with the loss of just a single drone.
“They also destroyed the Russian S-300 air defence systems around two oil production plants used to export oil to China and, crucually, cleared the skies for future operations by eliminating western-facing control radars in Syria which were linked up to the Iranian air defences.
“And those operations are coming.”