He’d love to buy them off, but thanks to Rachel Reeves, he can’t afford to do so. That’s because the savings have effectively been spent, even before they’re banked.
In a bid to plug the black hole in the nation’s finances, the Chancellor announced in her Spring Statement that she would slash £5billion from disability benefits.
That includes tightening eligibility for the personal independence payment (PIP), cutting sickness-related universal credit, and restricting access for under-22s.
The backlash has been fierce.
Critics claim the government is taking cash from people who struggle to get out of bed, let alone into work.
Around 80 Labour MPs may rebel, just short of the 83 needed to wipe out Starmer’s majority of 165.
At least a dozen government figures are threatening to resign if the vote, due on 1 July, goes ahead.
The mood is turning ugly.
Labour government whips are getting tough, warning rebels they’ll be blacklisted from ministerial jobs if they act.
Starmer has already been forced into a U-turn over the winter fuel payment. This time, though, Reeves has made that impossible.
The money’s already gone.
Reeves has lost her grip on the nation’s finances. She left herself with just £9.9billion of fiscal headroom after October’s budget – despite pulling in £40billion of extra tax.
That’s because she spent an extra £30billion, and waved through huge public sector pay rises without asking for any productivity in return.
She borrowed £20.2billion in April, and another £17.7billion in May. Month by month, we are heading closer to bankruptcy.
Reeves is blaming the Tories, global instability and Trump tariffs. But this is her mess. The economy is shrinking, inflation refuses to fall and her tax hikes have backfired.
Her Budget national insurance raid on employers has helped destroy 275,000 jobs. Her clampdown on wealthy non-doms risks driving money and talent out of the country, and lose the Treasury more than it gains.
The Iran war is a wildcard, especially if it sends the oil price soaring.
Now the disability savings are on the line too. That £5billion has already been baked into her figures. Without it, her numbers don’t add up.
If Starmer backs down, Reeves will need to find the money from somewhere else.
Most experts already think further tax hikes are coming in October, possibly as much as £24billion to £30billion.
She may now need to add another £5billion to that.
It’s yet another crisis of Labour’s own making.
Starmer is stuck, as Labour’s poll numbers slide – particularly among its core supporters.
Cutting benefits for disabled people was never going to be popular, but the system is spiralling out of control.
The disability bill is already at £30billion, and could hit £100billion by the end of this Parliament.
It’s being driven by the country’s poor physical health, and a surge in mental health claims from younger adults.
Something needs to be done, but nobody wants to wield the knife.
The Tories got used to being the villains on welfare reform. Labour is finding it far harder.
Starmer’s only way out may be to spend his way through. But Reeves has already blown the cash. Nice work, chancellor.