The mass desertion of Tory voters switching to Reform UK in the wake of Lee Anderson’s defection has continued this week with a new poll giving the party a record-high level of support.
The latest weekly Techne UK tracker poll for Express.co.uk has revealed that more than one in five (21%) Conservative voters from the 2019 election have now switched their support to the party led by Richard Tice. It comes as the Conservative candidate for Mayor of Manchester became another high-profile defector to Reform.
Of the voters surveyed who had decided how they would vote 13% (up 1% from last week) backed Reform making it Britain’s third party in support three points ahead of the Lib Dems on 10% (down 1%) and more than double the Greens on 6% (up 1%).
Meanwhile, after another miserable week where Tory MP plotters openly discussed replacing Rishi Sunak with Penny Mordaunt, the Conservative Party remained marooned on 22% putting them 21 points behind Labour on 43% (down 1%).
If this were the result of an election the Tories would have 73 seats, less than half the number of seats of their worst-ever election in 1906 while Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour would have a massive 318 majority.
Ironically, because of the first past the post electoral system, Electoral Calculus predicts that Reform UK would not win a single seat despite coming third in terms of support. However, Reform is confident of retaining Lee Anderson’s seat and winning Clacton if Nigel Farage stands there.
Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo said: “Once again our weekly tracker poll of Westminster voting intentions brings further difficult news for Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Government. Whilst we have become used to big leads for Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party – this week falling a point but still on a significant 43% of national vote share – the real story remains the continued growth in support of Richard Tice’s Reform UK.
“This week Tice’s party grows another point in national vote share to a further new high for our weekly tracker polling at 13% of national vote share. This continued rise in national support now means that more than 1 in 5 of previously Conservative 2019 General Election voters have switched their allegiance over to Reform.
“This is a quite staggering level of direct ‘switchers’ from Conservatives to Reform UK. As such all eyes will no doubt be on Nigel Farage and his upcoming decisions on where to further place his emphasis and support – very difficult times for the Conservatives indeed.”
A number of Tory MPs believe that while Reform candidates on their own could mean they lose around 3,000 votes, if Mr Farage stands it could end any hope of retaining their seats.
One Tory MP in a Red Wall seat: “If Nigel Farage runs I may as well give up. The attention he will receive and the number of extra votes that will give to Reform will make it impossible for me to win.”
The Techne poll suggests that while 21% of 2019 Tory voters now back Reform only 42% have stuck with the Conservative Party. A further 11% have switched to Labour, 13% say they will not vote and 9% are uncertain.
The survey of 1,632 voters appears to confirm the picture from a mega poll earlier this year of more than 13,000 by Whitestone paid for by Lady McAlpine which showed Reform are neck and neck with the Tories in six English regions.
Meanwhile Labour continues to lead in every age, education and socio-economic category. However, voter disillusionment remains high with only 47% definitely voting at the next election and 24% saying they would not vote.
