St. John’s didn’t need to break much of a sweat against Providence on Thursday. The Red Storm jumped out to an early lead and kept the Friars at arm’s length throughout, advancing to the Big East semifinals for the third straight season.
Things aren’t likely to come as easily against Seton Hall on Friday.
Shaheen Holloway’s Pirates were terrific against Creighton in a 72-61 victory on Thursday, holding the Blue Jays to just 26 points in the first half, which allowed Seton Hall to play its preferred style of basketball from the jump.
Will the Pirates be able to spoil the March Madness party at Madison Square Garden?
St. John’s vs. Seton Hall odds, prediction
This should be a throwback.
These are two physical, defense-first teams that prefer to get inside and wear you down, rather than go back and forth and trade shots from 3-point range.
There are 365 teams in Division I, and only three (Tarleton State, Presbyterian, and Texas State) attempt fewer 3-pointers per game than Seton Hall. St. John’s is less averse to shooting from downtown, but the Johnnies rank 244th in the nation in that same category.
Neither team will be complaining about this turning into a half-court, pass-and-move showdown, though it could benefit the underdog more than the Red Storm.
While Seton Hall plays at a snail’s pace (302nd in KenPom’s adjusted tempo rankings), St. John’s likes to play in transition. The Red Storm ranks 60th in adjusted tempo and would be ill-advised to get bogged down as Creighton did on Thursday.
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And although Rick Pitino’s side swept the season series and has won five in a row against the Pirates, the stylistic matchup here points to this being a tricky day at the office for the Johnnies.
Seton Hall’s offense pales in comparison to St. John’s, but the Pirates are an elite defensive unit (12th in the country, per KenPom) and will be committed to turning this into a rock fight. Their season depends on it.
St. John’s likely has too much for Seton Hall at the end of the day, but this is too many points to lay against one of the best defensive teams in the sport.
The Play: Seton Hall +8 (-110, Caesars)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.