South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol made a key miscalculation in his catastrophic decision to declare martial law this week, an expert says.
Yoon announced the move on Tuesday, claiming the measures were neccessary to protect the country from “North Korea’s communist forces” and “eliminate anti-state elements.”
The conservative politician also cited repeated attempts by his liberal rivals in control of parliament to impeach top officials and curtail key parts of his budget bill for next year.
He was soon faced into a humiliating climbdown after large-scale protests erupted in the streets of Seoul, and MPs forced their way into the National Assembly to block the decision.
The parliament has since initiated impeachment proceedings against Yoon. Former National Intelligence Officer for North Korea at the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Sydney Seiler believes he fundamentally misunderstood the mood of the nation.
“Yoon’s experience before his election (and he won by very few votes) was as a prosecutor –not as a politician,” Seiler told Express.co.uk.
“As a result, I don’t think he realized how quickly – and how forcefully – Assembly members and ordinary Koreans would respond to his declaration of martial law – even though he tried to slip it by the middle of the night,” he continued.
“He clearly didn’t know that Korea is a mass democracy with a long history of politics in the streets and an unwillingness to bow down to would-be authoritarians.”
Asked whether the political chaos could make an escalation by Seoul’s arch-nemesis North Korea more likely, Seiler says it is doubtful.
“If anything, his claim that the opposition was in the pocket of North Korea will solder opposition to his rule,” the intelligence expert argued, saying he saw “no sign of the kind of chaos that would have followed had Yoon persisted in what amounted to a coup from above”.
Yoon had invoked South Korea’s martial law provisions, last introduced in 1979, to station troops around parliament and temporarily halt its activities.
Seiler, the author of Power in Movement, a study surveying the modern history of modern social movements, said he also doubts Yoon’s claims of the looming threat posed by “anti-state” actors.
“There was a time when accusing opponents of having support from Pyongyang was enough to kill their chances,” he said. “But at least since they succeeded in unseating the last president, when millions of people filled the streets during what was called the ‘candlelight movement,’ South Koreans have had a high level of political sophistication and willingness to pour into the streets.
“Would-be authoritarians in other democracies should take notice!” Seiler added.
Yoon, who came to power by a narrow margin in 2022, was already deeply unpopular even before the martial law fiasco began on Tuesday.
Defeat in parliamentary elections in the spring brought growing political pressure, and he has been criticised for his combative approach to parliament, strained relations with unions, and accusations of eroding democracy, which he denies.
Should the impeachment pass in parliament, Yoon will lose his constitutional powers pending a Constitutional Court decision.
Presidential duties would be temporarily assumed by Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.
The presidential office defended the initial decision to declare martial law, saying it was “strictly within [the country’s] constitutional framework”, The Independent reports.
On Wednesday, it said the announcement had been timed to “minimise damage” to the South Korea’s economy and the lives of its people.
