Is the Prime Minister about to get the boot from his own MPs? One wonders if – following the welfare bill rebellion – Sir Keir Starmer knows the knives are out for him. On Wednesday, the PM suspended the Labour whip from 3 new MPs – Neil Duncan-Jordan, Brian Leishman and Chris Hinchcliff, with veteran MP Rachael Maskell also now having to sit as an independent.
As if to flex his political muscles against would-be challengers, the PM also took away trade envoy roles from Rosena Allin-Khan, Bell Ribeiro-Addy and Mohammed Yasin. All MPs involved are on the Labour Left and challenged the government’s planned welfare cuts. Still, the fact 47 MPs rebelled – and only 7 targeted by the PM – suggests this is more about sending a signal than anything else
Signal for what, one may ask? Perhaps Sir Keir knows a leadership challenge is in the offing. Yet all the main challengers to the PM are either associated with him and/or on the Labour Right: Deputy PM Angela Rayner, Health Secretary Wes Streeting and Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham.
For MPs this could be a case of jumping from the frying pan into at least another frying pan, although Rayner and Streeting are working class heroes with good stories to tell. Either as leader could impact Reform’s rise in the Labour heartlands, although aspects of Rayner’s family life arguably undermine her qualifications to lead the government.
Even if Sir Keir is given the boot, it is surely certain to be a continuity leader. Moreover, murmurings about an emergency election are for the birds. Whatever misgivings Labour backbenchers might have about Sir Keir, I’d wager none of them would swap him for a Prime Minister Farage.
There’s cutting your nose off to spite your face and then there’s just plain stupidity! Still, the PM has poor approval ratings and low legitimacy both within his party and out in the country. But that is equally true of under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch. Neither are inspiring confidence and both would be lucky to survive until the next election.
A changing of the guard for either Labour or the Tories might help both parties in their respective electoral chances. But a new leader for either would likely be bad news for Reform UK, which is currently capitalising on both Sir Keir’s and Badenoch’s unpopularity.
Yet just as Badenoch cannot continue with the Tories tanking poll numbers, how much longer can Sir Keir piss off his backbenchers and still retain their loyalty? But would a PM Rayner or Streeting really turn around Labour fortunes? Would Robert Jenrick really pull the Conservative Party out of the abyss?
Both prospects are doubtful. But the PM’s authority has never been lower and his stock trades down among his own MPs. Will Labour really take the tough decisions to get the UK back on track? Maybe the PM will face down the rebels, assert his authority and make good on his promises. But, for now at least, this is a government in civil war, facing a dying Tory party and a dynamic Reform ready to eat Labour’s lunch.