Millions of households face Christmas food price hikes amid warnings Labour could heap more costs on businesses at the Budget. Retailers urged Rachel Reeves to think “very, very carefully”, with food and drink inflation expected to hit 5.7% by the end of the year.
They warned against a repeat of last year’s National Insurance hammerblow, which has driven up prices for firms and consumers. Alarm bells are ringing that the under-pressure Chancellor will unleash another punishing tax raid as she desperately scrambles to fill a £30billion black hole when she delivers her budget on November 26. The boss of supermarket chain Aldi has said that any measures that further increase costs on employers could lead to higher food prices.
Giles Hurley insisted the impact of last year’s NICs rise and the cost of new packaging rules had already “rippled through to prices on the shelf edge”.
“Any policies which affect the operating costs of business should be considered very, very carefully because of the very real risk they find their way… back into the food system and onto prices,” the chief executive told the BBC.
Mr Hurley also stressed that long-term stability will depend on strengthening Britain’s farming base, arguing that a healthy domestic agricultural sector could help bring down prices and reduce reliance on global markets.
He said: “Ultimately, a resilient British food sector is utterly dependent on having a resilient British farm sector.”
It comes as the price of staple goods has rocketed over the past year with the Food and Drink Federation (FDF) warning the rises are “steeper than anything in recent decades”.
A 500g pack of lean beef mince has jumped from £3.79 at the start of the year to more than £5 in most major UK supermarkets.
Sugar, whole milk and cheese have also seen steep price rises.
The FDF warned new packaging rules alone could add an extra £1.1billion in costs onto the sector from next month.
The industry body said that UK food inflation has been higher than other European countries in recent months, including France, Germany and Spain, indicating that domestic policies have played a key part.
Liliana Danila, the FDF’s lead economist, said: “Looking at the longer-term picture, today’s prices are steeper than anything in recent decades.”
She added that spikes in energy and raw ingredients prices had now stabilised, meaning inflation was being “fuelled by the financial impact of domestic policies, now trickling down to supermarket shelves”.
FDF chief executive Karen Betts said: “As this autumn’s Budget looms, it’s critical that Government does not add further to the already high costs of regulation in our sector.
“We’ve been hit by rising taxes, employment costs and a new packaging tax.”
More than 60 retailers wrote to Ms Reeves last month ahead of her fiscal announcement on November 26, urging her to avoid further taxes on the industry, which has been among the hardest hit by the government’s revenue-raising measures.
The Treasury said the Budget “will build an economy that works for working people” such as cutting inflation and “keeping a tight grip on public spending”.
But Shadow Chancellor Sir Mel Stride said Labour’s policies are making millions of people poorer.
“At a time when families are already struggling with high prices, the last thing we need is a Budget that drives up the cost of food,” he said.
“Taxes on business are already too high – and piling on more will only make life harder for hardworking families and put even more jobs and high streets at risk.
“Rachel Reeves went into the election promising ‘growth, growth, growth’ – instead, growth has slowed, inflation has almost doubled, borrowing is up, and taxes are up – with more pain coming this autumn. Raising taxes again won’t fix Labour’s economic mismanagement.
“It’s no wonder Keir Starmer has quietly stripped the Chancellor of control over the Budget. But sidelining Rachel Reeves isn’t enough – he must also reject the failed economic approach that’s leaving Britain poorer.”
Furthermore, the Chancellor has been warned that if she presses ahead with plans for a new surtax on properties with a rateable value above £500,000, hundreds of shops will be forced to close.
The plans were announced in last year’s Budget and are set to be determined on November 26.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) said as many as 400 large-format stores could shutter as a result, which will have a knock-on effect on the wider high street.
BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said: “Britain’s largest shops are magnets, pulling people into high streets, shopping centres, and retail parks and supporting thousands of surrounding cafes, restaurants, and smaller and independent shops.
“After years of rising costs, far too many stores have disappeared – leaving behind empty shells that once thrived at the heart of our communities.
Four hundred more large stores could disappear if the Government forces them into its new higher tax band. This would mean up to 100,000 jobs lost, emptier high streets, and less revenue for the Exchequer.”
The BRC urged the Chancellor to act in the autumn Budget, warning: “Without simply shifting the cost onto larger stores – which would be massively damaging to our high streets”.
The grim messages come as the Government prepares to push forward with its employment rights overhaul.
Sir Keir has indicated he will ignore pleas to ease the proposals, which would give workers “day one” rights to statutory sick pay and protection from unfair dismissal, as well as loosening strike rules.
The Tories have estimated that the measures will add £154 for every worker hired, on top of the £800 annual cost of the NICs increase.