Shocking new polling shows a tight three-way race between Reform UK, the Tories and Labour if a General Election (GE) was held tomorrow. Sir Keir Starmer’s party would haemorrhage a record number of seats to Nigel Farage, according to charts by political consultancy and pollster Electoral Calculus, as the Tories surge to near neck and neck with Labour.
Research shows Reform would gain a staggering 138 seats, winning a total of 143. Of these, 121 would come at the expense of Labour as they are predicted to lose 223. Sir Keir’s party would lose 54% of its seats, winning 189, while the Conservatives close in with 183, gaining 62. According to a study by Britain’s senior psephologist, Professor Richard Rose, at the GE in July 2024, Mr Farage’s party won eight times as many votes from Conservatives as it did from Labour. However, despite the insurgent party’s huge success, winning 14.3% of the electorate, it only gained five seats.
This pushed Labour into the huge majority it gained last year as the right-wing vote was split between the Tories and Reform.
Professor Rose told GB News: “Now that Labour is in government it has become the victim of Reform’s protest appeal.”
Since coming to power, a series of unpopular measures have caused support for the party to plummet. Cuts to welfare, the axing of the winter fuel allowance, the war on farmers, and increased business taxes are among the reasons many Labour voters are losing confidence.
“Labour is still forecast as likely to win the most seats in the House of Commons according to MRP analysis, but its projected 189 MPs is less than half the total it now has and it is 137 seats short of a parliamentary majority,” Professor Rose continued.
“A breakdown of Labour losses shows that it would lose 121 seats to Reform candidates if an election were held today.”
Research also highlights a Labour wipeout in Scotland where the SNP is predicted to take back all 33 seats it lost to Sir Keir in July.
With the next General Election four years away, the next electoral opportunity comes on May 1 with the parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby, Labour MP Mike Amesbury’s old seat. Nationwide local elections will also take place where over 1,600 councillors will be elected.
