For one final time, we move on to player props this NFL season.
We head to Levi’s Stadium and the Super Bowl with a solid playoff showing in our rear-view mirror.
We’ve profited the last two weeks and have worked our way back to the break-even mark after a sorry end to the regular season that saw us move from double-digit profit to a deficit; hopefully, you missed those weeks.
Regardless, we have an opportunity to end in the money. We cut our deficit nearly in half, earning 1.29 units in championship week, bringing our season total to -1.58 units.
We bet one unit combined on each of these props, so don’t overexpose yourself and enjoy the Big Game as the 2026 Super Bowl comes into focus this weekend.
Let’s end the year on a high note.
2026 Super Bowl: Seahawks vs. Patriots player props
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 0.5 rushing yards (+280, BetMGM)
Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald will need to get creative to get his best playmaker the ball on Sunday night.
It’s been a while since Smith-Njigba has received jet-sweep-like carries for the Seahawks: He has only cleared this number three times this season, but that doesn’t matter.
What does matter is the matchup, and Christian Gonzalez is going to be following around Smith-Njigba for pretty much the entire game.
Gonzalez is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL and plays mostly man coverage against the opposing team’s top receiver.
Everyone is going to be betting on Smith-Njigba’s overs in receptions and yards, but I’m taking the contrarian approach.
Expect the Patriots to key in on him and force the Seahawks to get creative and give him a carry or two on end-around style plays.
Sam Darnold over 6.5 rushing yards (+105, bet365) | Darnold to score a touchdown (+1050, BetRivers)
The Patriots have a top-five run defense, allowing 3.73 yards per carry to opposing running backs, the third-best figure in the NFL.
Where they struggle is against opposing rushing quarterbacks. Opposition quarterbacks average 5.03 yards per carry, the seventh-worst number in the NFL this season.
Aside from Josh Allen, they haven’t exactly faced off against world beaters when running the ball.
Sam Darnold isn’t a big-time runner; his rush attempt prop is set for 2.5 carries, but given New England’s holes when spying on opposing quarterbacks, I think this is a good shot.
I project Darnold’s rushing total at eight, giving us a nice edge on the 6.5 at plus-money on BetMGM.
Darnold took three carries for nine yards last week and is a good bet to do it again as he appears fully recovered from a nagging oblique injury.
As for Darnold to get in the endzone, it’s really about attacking a stale line on BetRivers.
Betting on the NFL?
Other betting operators have Darnold to score a touchdown at +550; you’re getting nearly double that here, and all you need is a quarterback sneak at the goal line.
Feel free to target under 1.5 yards for the shortest touchdown scored in the Big Game.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.