The Post’s Erich Richter makes his NFL picks for Super Bowl Sunday.
SUNDAY
Seahawks -4.5 over Patriots | Under 45.5 total points
Trust Sam Darnold.
We all know the problems with the former Jets draft pick, and it may be hard to see him raise the Lombardi Trophy as a potential Super Bowl MVP, but the better team should prevail here.
Frankly, the Patriots aren’t just lucky to be here; they should be extremely thankful, considering they haven’t even played good football in the playoffs.
New England’s defense has been solid, but if it were not for a Bo Nix injury and/or a Buffalo Bills collapse in the AFC Divisional Round, the Patriots wouldn’t be here.
The Patriots have averaged 4.3 yards per play in their three playoff games, an embarrassing figure that would rank as the worst in the NFL over a whole season.
That was against three top 10 defenses, so surely they’ll get a break this week, right? Nope.
The Seahawks’ defense is historically great, according to FTN’s Aaron Schatz, who ranks Seattle No. 1 in the NFL in DVOA in both defense and overall.
Here’s a crazy stat.
If you like the Super Bowl team to win, you should also be targeting them to cover.
Super Bowl winners all-time against the spread are 57-2, with an 88 percent cover rate.
That’s a trend worth targeting, and while my model likes New England, there’s no way I can back them here with a bad offensive line and no run game to speak of.
I’ll also target the under in this matchup, as I laid out earlier, the Patriots’ offense is really struggling.
We’re not sure whether Drake Maye is actually injured, as has been discussed, but the Seahawks are going to test him and come after him in a big way.
Seattle allows 4.7 yards per play, the second-best figure in the NFL. That, compared to where the Patriots’ offense is right now, we’re cooking with gas.
The Seahawks also allow 3.8 yards per carry, by far the best in the NFL this season.
It’s a loaded roster from top to bottom, and New England is lucky to be here.
Betting on the NFL?
Expect a slow-moving slugfest where every yard is hard to come by, but I don’t see the roadmap to victory for the Patriots.
The Seahawks win the Super Bowl in Darnold’s first year in Seattle. What a world.
Season: 121-128-5
Playoffs: 5-5
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
